California has pursued the wrong strategy for beating COVID-19. Here’s a smarter way

We have been hearing hopeful news lately about COVID-19 cases declining and more and more people getting the vaccine, even if the roll-out continues to face challenges. However, with recent studies confirming that the new virus variant surging in California is more contagious, and only 18% of Californians currently vaccinated — not to mention uncertainty as to how effective the vaccines will be against this and other variants — decision-makers should be focused on one thing: how to get to zero COVID-19 cases.

This might seem far-fetched in a state with nearly 40 million residents spread across over 163,000 square miles. But it is possible. And it is happening in many countries throughout the world. If South Korea with its 51 million people, and Vietnam with its 71 million people can do it, so can we.

What will it take? An exit strategy. Specifically, the “Green Zone Exit Strategy,” which has been developed by leading epidemiologists, clinicians and data experts throughout the world. It is proven, and it is effective.

Early on, California benefited from leaders who implemented stay-at-home orders that helped “flatten the curve.” But as a result of lockdowns lifted too rapidly and easily ignored guidelines combined with a rushed reopening driven more by politics than by science, we’re nearing the one-year mark of a pandemic that could have ended last summer.

The state’s recent announcements moving more counties from the most restrictive purple tier to the red tier, allowing for indoor dining, movie theaters and gyms to reopen, were met with optimism and excitement. But these moves will ultimately yield a longer pandemic at a time when the state is closer than it has been in months to finally ending the crisis.

In contrast, the Green Zone Exit Strategy starts with a true shutdown in which people only leave their homes for the essentials: to protect their health and safety. This includes blocking non-essential travel; setting up isolation facilities for mild and moderate cases so people can’t infect others; contact tracing and quarantine of close contacts; mask wearing; enforcement and frequent testing.

Reopening much more normal social and economic activities can begin in areas that have zero community transmission, meaning places where all infections can be traced back to contact with another sick person so they can quarantine. People travel and interact with others freely within these “green zones” — which can be as small as a city or even a community — with frequent testing helping to ensure community spread remains at zero.

Green zones are protected by limiting travel from “red zones,” where community transmission persists. Red zones must remain under stringent safety measures, including limited in-person social contact, mask use, universal testing and frequent disinfecting — which means they also rapidly become green zones.

As you create more green zones, things gradually open back up, driven by data and science. It’s how dozens of countries have wiped out COVID-19, and it’s how California can get to zero cases in a matter of weeks.

The ongoing cycle of opening and closing based on case rates and test positivity doesn’t work because the approach fundamentally misunderstands the virus: low transmission is different than zero transmission, infection rates vary by community and the virus does indeed travel. Even when transmission is lower, the slightest change in community behavior can spur a surge that keeps growing.

“Crushing the curve” will not be easy. I know that COVID fatigue is real and shutdowns have taken a grave toll on Californians. But with case rates at their lowest point in months, California is in a position to choose a faster path out of the pandemic — one that is proven and backed by science. It’s a path to get us out from under this virus in a matter of weeks, instead of continually hoping that a new vaccine or a new partial shutdown will do the trick.

Californians have lived under these half measures for a year and are still living through them. But containment works within a matter of weeks — when done right. And when done right, we can avoid future shutdowns and prolonged harm to the residents who can least afford it.

California is seeing a downward curve in cases right now and, as vaccine distribution ramps up, there is hope to end this by summer. But as a pandemic expert for nearly 20 years, I know that as long as a curve exists, California will continue to lose the fight against COVID-19.

If we truly say we are following science and not politics, then the science is very clear. We can crush the curve. We can save lives. We can end this pandemic. We know how. It will be difficult — but it won’t be for long. The Green Zone Exit Strategy is the multidisciplinary approach that can finally eliminate this virus, and it’s the approach California needs now more than ever.