Kings mailbag: Trade deadline buyers or sellers? Cory Joseph, Kyle Guy, Harrison Barnes?
Things weren’t looking very good a couple of weeks ago, but since then the Kings have shown fight against some of the best in the West and two of the biggest beasts from the East.
The Kings (12-12) were tied for ninth in the Western Conference going into Friday’s game against the Orlando Magic (9-16), a half-game behind the Golden State Warriors for the No. 8 seed. They moved into a tie for seventh earlier this week after winning seven of eight, including wins over the Boston Celtics, Denver Nuggets and Los Angeles Clippers, but they lost ground with Tuesday’s loss to the Philadelphia 76ers.
De’Aaron Fox is emerging as a legitimate All-Star candidate. Tyrese Haliburton continues to impress in the Rookie of the Year race. Harrison Barnes is having a career year. Buddy Hield and Marvin Bagley III are demonstrating fundamental growth. The Kings are winning games and coach Luke Walton is being praised for his work with the team.
So now what? As the NBA trade deadline draws near, should the Kings buy or sell? Should they start making wholesale changes or keep the team intact for a Western Conference playoff push in hopes of ending the league’s longest postseason drought after 14 consecutive losing seasons?
We all have questions. Let’s see if we can find some answers in this week’s Kings mailbag.
Note: Some questions have been edited for length or clarity.
Should the Kings buy or sell?
@Drnesto93 asks: With the recent success of the team, does this move Monte McNair’s timeline forward? What do we know of McNair’s thinking to this point?
We haven’t heard from McNair in quite some time, so we can’t say what he’s really thinking, but I’m guessing he’s glad he doesn’t have to make any immediate decisions.
The trade deadline won’t arrive until March 25. That gives him six weeks to see which direction this team goes so he can decide if the Kings are going to be buyers or sellers. Players like Jabari Parker, Nemanja Bjelica and Cory Joseph could be on the move no matter what, but it might be difficult to part with players like Barnes, Hield and Richaun Holmes if the Kings are still in playoff contention a month from now.
McNair is going to retool this roster with players who fit a Fox-Haliburton-Bagley timeline, but he doesn’t necessarily have to hurry that. Barnes is under contract for two more years. Hield has three years left. Both have declining salary structures, so in theory they will retain their trade value if they’re contributing for a playoff contender.
McNair would love to make the playoffs this season if it happens organically due to the natural growth of players like Fox, Hield, Haliburton, Barnes, Bagley and Holmes. If that isn’t happening, he can pivot toward the acquisition of future assets.
Based on his comments in the past, McNair wants to maintain flexibility and be prepared when the right opportunity arises to improve the team. I wouldn’t anticipate any moves that compromise future flexibility in a desperate bid to chase the No. 8 seed this season, but McNair comes from a Houston Rockets organization that was known for wheeling and dealing. If he has a chance make the team better now without hurting himself later, he probably won’t hesitate to pull the trigger.
What about tanking?
@MeghanBobrowsky asks: Is the team still planning to tank this season after its recent win streak?
McNair came in with a clear plan to build out a younger roster with players who fit Fox’s timeline, but he never gave us the impression that anyone in the organization intended to tank this season.
Letting Bogdan Bogdanovic go and then reducing the role of Bjelica signaled a willingness to take a step back before moving forward, but the Kings are willing to take that step now if it happens because guys like Fox, Hield, Haliburton and Bagley have made a leap. What McNair seems to want is a young, athletic and versatile team with switchable defenders all over the floor. He wants to get to the free-throw line a lot. He wants to score as many points as possible in the paint. He wants to kick out for open 3-pointers when the defense collapses to close off the lane.
This, I believe, is the course syllabus for the Monte McNair School of Analytics. If the Kings move in that direction and miss the playoffs, McNair won’t mind landing a top pick in what is supposed to be a loaded 2021 NBA Draft, but he will enjoy the ride as much as anyone if that transition results in a surprising run to the playoffs.
Rebounding and free throws
@Kinglam94 asks: How can we get more consistency in terms of rebounding and free-throw shooting?
During Thursday’s Zoom session with reporters, Walton mentioned these problems as two big areas of concern for the Kings now that they’ve resolved some of their larger issues on defense. They are 23rd in the NBA in rebounding and tied for 29th in free-throw shooting.
The Kings are doing a really nice job of getting to the free-throw line, but they have to start converting at a higher rate. They are sixth in the NBA in free-throw attempts at 24.0 per game after finishing 28th at 20.3 in 2019-20. However, they are tied for last in free-throw percentage at 71.6%, down from 77% last season.
Much of this responsibility falls on Fox, who leads the team with 6.6 free-throw attempts per game. Fox is shooting a career-low 68.4% at the stripe this season. We also have to look at Bagley (49.3%) and Hassan Whiteside (52.3%), who rank third and fourth on the team, respectively, in free-throw attempts. Haliburton (86.7%), Hield (86%), Barnes (85.7%) and Holmes (78.2%) have been good, but the Kings need to see some improvement from Fox, Bagley and Whiteside.
Sacramento’s rebounding issues can be traced to the defensive end of the floor. They are 24th in defensive rebounds (33.3), 28th in opponent offensive rebounds (10.9) and 25th in opponent second-chance points (14.0). Those numbers will cost the Kings some games if they can’t find a way to limit second-chance scoring opportunities. Walton explained part of the problem is the Kings are “playing guys who might be smaller than who they’re matched up to,” but “our guys have been scrapping.”
Kyle Guy and Cory Joseph
@stevenross20 asks: When does Kyle Guy take minutes away from Cory Joseph? Seems rather obvious.
We might be seeing that already. Guy, 23, isn’t getting a lot of minutes, but he has appeared in four of the last six games after sitting out 14 of the first 18. He had five points, four rebounds, two assists and two steals in 16 minutes in a 105-104 loss to the Miami Heat, but he hasn’t made much of an impact since then.
Joseph’s minutes have dropped over that same stretch. He had 16 points on 6-of-9 shooting with four assists in 24 minutes in a 126-124 win over the Toronto Raptors on Jan. 29. Since then, he has made just 5 of 19 (.263) from the field and 1 of 8 (.125) from 3-point range while averaging 13.5 minutes per game.
Joseph, 29, is widely respected around the league. As recently as last summer, top executives viewed Joseph as one of the most dependable players on the team. He is a 10-year veteran who went to the playoffs every year until he came to Sacramento, but according to Basketball-Reference, his defensive rating has gradually declined from 103 in 2012-13 to 114 last season and 118 this season. Guy, the 55th pick in the 2019 NBA Draft out of Virginia, currently has an identical 118 defensive rating, but his offensive rating is 10 points higher at 112.
At 6-foot-3, 220 pounds, Joseph gives the Kings more size and length than Guy can provide at 6-1, 170. The Kings would probably love to get Joseph going — whether that’s for a playoff push or a midseason trade — but in the meantime Walton seems to be giving Guy an opportunity to earn more minutes.
This story was originally published February 12, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
