Should Bogdan Bogdanovic consider a contract extension to stay with Sacramento?

Back in October, Bogdan Bogdanovic told reporters the Sacramento Kings offered him the maximum possible extension to his current contract. Due to his unique situation, the terms of that extension offer are $51.4 million across four years.

Unlike Buddy Hield, who signed a much more lucrative agreement last summer, Bogdanovic did not enter the NBA on a rookie scale deal. That means his potential extension is capped at a 120% raise, but it also means that negotiations can continue through the full 2019-20 season.

“We will wait to see,” Bogdanovic said of the contract offer in October. “Maybe we will sign tomorrow. Maybe we sign in a month. Who knows? We will see.”

A few months later it feels like time to make the case for putting ink to paper.

Any assessment of a player’s value starts with what they give you on the court. This season Bogdanovic is scoring 14.5 points per game while shooting 42.6% from the field and 38.3% from 3-point range. He has added 3.6 assists and 3.0 rebounds per game, but is struggling from the charity stripe, having connected on just 66.1% of his free throws.

Based on contracts recently signed around the league, that type of production is expected to fetch a contract worth about $15 to $20 million per year in salary — significantly above the roughly $13 million per year offer on the table for Bogdanovic right now.

The most relevant context for the value of Bogdanovic can be found by looking at the recent deals given to his teammates. Last offseason Harrison Barnes signed for $85 million across four years. Hield also got a four-year deal worth $86 million plus bonuses that could push that deal even higher.

It would be hard to argue that Bogdanovic deserves much less than Hield or Barnes based purely on their play. The three Kings are also the same age, so expectations for the future should be similar. With that in mind, it makes sense that Bogdanovic hasn’t jumped to sign his extension offer.

Injuries are a question mark

But there is one big factor to consider before completely dismissing the idea of a $51.4 million extension. That factor is Bogdanovic’s injury history.

Hield has been an ironman in terms of health, missing only two of a possible 287 games in his career. Barnes also has a good track record, missing only 34 of 617 possible games across his eight years in the league.

Throughout Bogdanovic’s career, he has missed 27 of a 205 possible games. That means he has sat out at a rate twice as frequent as Barnes, and over 15 times more frequent than the seemingly unbreakable Hield.

Bogdanovic has also undergone offseason surgery in order to repair a meniscus tear in his knee twice since his NBA debut in 2017. Even before coming to the NBA, a badly sprained ankle caused him to miss two months while playing with Fenerbahçe in 2016.

Both Hield and Barnes have played in all 41 games for the Kings this season while Bogdanovic has not. He has missed 11 contests through a combination of knee, ankle and hamstring issues.

Bogdanovic’s injury concerns are significant in both the past and present, and they should affect the way this contract extension is viewed.

He can turn down the offer and hope to find a deal closer to $20 million per year this summer, but that would mean betting on his ability to stay healthy. Quite frankly, that may not be the safest bet. One major injury could leave him looking at just a fraction of what he could lock in today.

Taking the money now would guarantee that Bogdanovic gets a substantial, if not massive, payday. Though it might be selling short his value, $51.4 million is still a life-changing amount of money. If Bogdanovic continues to struggle with his health, he may want to consider signing on the dotted line.

Richard Ivanowski has written about the Kings for Sactown Royalty for the past two seasons. Find him on Twitter @ivanowskiNBA.

This story was originally published January 17, 2020 at 11:05 AM.