NBA Draft Preview: Will Deni Avdija be the next European star passed up by the Kings?
Two years ago a forward-sized European with guard-like skills burst onto the scene and got a lot of consideration at the top of the NBA Draft.
Luka Doncic was a divisive prospect who was ultimately drafted third by the Dallas Mavericks. He has already become an MVP candidate and completely reversed the fortunes of his franchise.
The Sacramento Kings had the chance to draft Doncic, but passed. The Kings are still fighting to make their first playoff appearance in over a decade. They aren’t expected to pick quite as high in this year’s draft, but the order isn’t set and the chance to trade up is always in play.
A similar story is unfolding this year, but with a much weaker draft class. This time, Deni Avdija is the sharp passer in a big body departing the EuroLeague for American basketball. The young Israeli-Serbian pro is not expected to be the next Doncic, but his potential is fascinating nonetheless.
STRENGTHS
Avdija’s biggest asset is his playmaking. He’s not a point guard and should not be his team’s first option, but he will enhance the ball movement in any lineup. His vision is strong in pick-and-rolls and he is quick to find the open man when driving. After securing a rebound, his first look is always up the court and he can often zing a long pass to open up the fast break.
Avdija offers a nice blend of intelligence and fundamentals. He’s been learning from former NBA players for the past two years. He has learned the tricks of veterans at the young age of 19 and it shows. He seems to do everything the right way, from his shooting form to his footwork in the post. You can see him improve on a nearly game-to-game basis.
Most of Avdija’s offensive punch comes around the basket. He has nice numbers finishing at the basket, and hit nearly 60 percent of his 2-point attempts this season for Maccabi Tel-Aviv. Avdija loves playing in the post, and while that is not a highly desired trait in the NBA, his ability to pass out to the perimeter or find a cutting teammate makes it work.
Avdija came around defensively this past season. That will never be his best side of the ball, but big improvements have been made. Avdija now plays solid team defense and makes the right rotation more often than not. His weakside help has improved to the point where he can contribute around the rim, but he still can’t stop larger NBA players.
WEAKNESSES
There is massive red flag in Avdija’s game, and it’s exactly where you don’t want it in the modern NBA. His shooting numbers are pretty much miserable. While the form on his jumpshot looks good, he hit only 27.7 percent of his 3-pointers this season. His free throw number is even more frightening, at just 55.6 percent. This has always been a problem for him.
Avdija comes with a few physical concerns as well. He stands 6-foot-9, which is nice, but unofficial wingspan measurements have suggested he could have short arms. That would hurt his ability to defend power forwards. His listed weight of 215 pounds doesn’t help either. Avdija isn’t particularly strong or athletic, which means he might be stuck as a lanky small forward.
While Avdija has progressed to the point of being a positive off-ball defender, his one-on-one skills still need a lot of work. His strength and wingspan don’t hurt, but he has a tendency to get cooked by quicker opponents. He could become solid in this area, but that would likely require years of training, strength-building and experience.
There are real questions about what Avdija’s role would be, and if it even makes sense. He’s not a stretch-four because he can’t shoot. He’s not a traditional four because he can’t slow down big men. He’s not an ideal small forward because he’s not a great perimeter defender. Mostly, he just needs to develop more. He could be special if he does, but that’s not guaranteed.
FIT WITH THE KINGS
Avdija is a boom-or-bust prospect, and so is his fit with the Kings. If his on-ball defense and outside shooting comes around, he would be perfect.
He would bring size and skill to the forward position, which Sacramento desperately needs. That type of player would help unlock De’Aaron Fox and give him a release valve who could catch and shoot or drive and dish. His help defense would support Marvin Bagley or Richaun Holmes near the basket and he wouldn’t crowd them with a lack of spacing.
But if the on-ball defense and shooting don’t come around, the fit is nonexistent. He would be another poor shooter, causing spacing problems for Bagley and Holmes. While his passing would still be there, it would become far more limited as defenders would sag off him. He would be another defensive gap the team must cover up, rather than helping to fill the holes.
It’s easy to fall in love with Avdija when you see his size, intelligence, and playmaking, but he comes with a lot of risk. If he doesn’t take big leaps in important areas, he has genuine bust potential.
If the Kings end up with a top-five pick in this year’s draft, they should steer clear of Avdija. However, if he falls late into the lottery, Sacramento should roll the dice on his upside.