NBA Draft Preview: Obi Toppin would help the Kings on Day 1, but is that enough?
Despite a recent surge across the last two seasons that has seen them elevated out of the bottom of the barrel, the Sacramento Kings still have a lot of work to do.
The seven-season stretch where the Kings repeatedly failed to reach 30 wins feels like the distant past, but the prospect of a winning record still feels too far into the future.
There are many areas for improvement. Anyone that can play small forward, big men that can shoot and versatile defenders would all be welcome additions to the roster. A clear team mentality, perhaps the high-paced style deployed by former coach Dave Joerger, could help.
But sometimes basketball is simple. Sometimes it’s not about fit or schemes or individual skills or positions. Sometimes it’s just about talent.
The Kings need more of it, and they need it now. The NBA Draft is Sacramento’s next chance to improve their roster, and they’re fortunate enough to have a lottery pick.
If adding talent is the goal, Obi Toppin needs to be near the top of Sacramento’s list of ideal prospects. Toppin recorded 20 points per game for the Dayton Flyers, one of the best teams in the country, while shooting 69.8 percent on 2-point attempts and 39 percent on 3-pointers.
STRENGTHS
Toppin’s greatest asset is his pure scoring ability. He is an undeniable shot maker that can get it done from anywhere on the floor. He is elite at the rim, strong from distance and disruptive in transition. There are so many ways to get Toppin involved. Pick-and-rolls, dribble hand-offs, and post entries will all put him in a position to do damage.
Toppin can also help his teammates score with impressive playmaking abilities. Despite often playing center for Dayton, Toppin frequently whipped passes to the corners, dished out of drives, and set his fellow big men up with pocket passes. He may not put up big assist numbers since he is such a great scorer himself, but he is a gifted and unselfish passer.
What unlocks Toppin’s game is his next-level athleticism. He has great straight -line speed and fantastic leaping ability. He will thrill fans will explosive dunks while providing an important vertical spacing element. He will catch and throw down pretty much any lob that gets near him. Opposing teams will need to put a gifted athlete on Toppin to slow him down.
Toppin spaces the floor horizontally too. He shot 41.7 percent from 3-point range across his college career. His stroke is professional and smooth. This skill really rounds out his offensive game into a complete and versatile arsenal. He’s the perfect example of what the modern league wants from a power forward on offense.
WEAKNESSES
Very few top 10 prospects have such a dramatic dichotomy between their offense and defense. Toppin kept his head above water defensively in college, but he’s expected to be a bit of a disaster in the NBA. Despite his speed and leaping ability, he is slow when stopping and starting or sliding laterally. Perimeter defense will likely be his biggest weakness.
Toppin’s interior defense is not much better. He has some highlight blocks, but even more lowlight misses. He gets pushed out of the way by stronger players, and sometimes even bows out voluntarily when he knows he’s beat. The same issues present themselves on the glass, where Toppin is a below-average rebounder.
A lot of Toppin’s issues are related to his size. He stands 6-foot-9 and has a decently long wingspan of 6-foot-11. However, he has a very slight waist and his legs are on the skinny side. He weighs in at 220 pounds, which is not nearly enough to bang with NBA centers. With this combination of weak points, Toppin will be stuck defending power forwards.
There also are questions about how much room for improvement Toppin has in him. He is already 22 years old, making him the oldest player expected to go in the lottery by a good margin. He doesn’t have the upside of many teenagers in his draft class. However, that’s not a huge issue, as Toppin is already a complete and well-rounded offensive stud.
FIT WITH THE KINGS
Once again we have a big man prospect that conflicts with Marvin Bagley. Toppin and Bagley could be a very potent offensive duo, but they also could be one of the worst defensive pairings in the league. Neither is a strong rim protector, which is arguably the most important quality of a big man.
The fit with Bagley is a puzzle that could cause the Kings to stay away from big men all together. But there’s another, more holistic way to look at things. The Kings are on the brink of breaking into the playoffs. Any player that can get them across that line would be a good pick.
Toppin is ready to contribute right now. While he is older than many of his peers in the draft, the maturity of his game would be a plus in Sacramento. He is ready to make an impact from day one, even if he doesn’t have the highest long term potential.
Maybe Toppin serves as Bagley’s back up. Maybe Bagley becomes a sixth man as Toppin earns a starting role. Maybe the Kings find a way to play them together for significant stretches. No matter how it shakes out, Toppin represents an injection of talent for a team that desperately needs one.
Toppin was arguably the best college player this year, and has a real shot to be the best rookie in the NBA next season. The Kings should be high on Toppin, as they don’t need a project player who could take years to develop.
If the Kings move up in the lottery, as they have done twice in the last three years, Toppin has to be on their radar. He should be in the conversation for a top-four pick along with fellow big men James Wiseman and Onyeka Okongwu.