NBA Draft Preview: Patrick Williams would solve a lot of problems for Sacramento
The fact that Harrison Barnes has yet to join the Sacramento Kings in the bubble has everyone worried about the team’s chances to make the playoffs. The concern is understandable, as Barnes is the only true combo-forward on the team. With no solid options behind him, the Kings are dangerously close to playing basketball without the modern game’s most valuable position.
The team has suggested Marvin Bagley will one day be capable in that role, but I disagree. He’s a big man for now and probably always will be. Justin James and DaQuan Jeffries might have to play that role in a pinch, and perhaps the team thinks they will be high-level options going forward. But second-round picks and undrafted free agents rarely reach those heights.
The Kings can continue to pursue options like Corey Brewer in free agency. Maybe they can try to get a younger player in the offseason. But again, I wouldn’t bet on it. The modern wing-forward archetype is highly coveted. Good players that fit that mold almost never become available, and the Kings are not a free agent destination to begin with.
If the Kings are going to solve this depth problem in the long term, they are going to have to do it through the draft. Only three combo-forwards in this class are expected to have high-end outcomes. I have already profiled Deni Avdija, who looks like a top-five pick, and Saddiq Bey, who isn’t getting much traction in the lottery.
Door No. 3 is Patrick Williams, an 18-year-old prospect out of Florida State. His ultra-raw skill set can be a little frightening at times, but there’s a chance he becomes a legitimate starting forward in the NBA. If the Kings understand the strengths and weakness of their roster, they should take a very close look at Williams this offseason.
STRENGTHS
Williams’ greatest strength is his team defense. His 6-foot-11 wingspan pairs with exceptional defensive instincts to create a true ball hawk. Don’t try to beat Williams in a passing lane because he will grab it and take it the other way. His highlight reel is full of plays where he comes all the way across the court to help at the rim, often with an authoritative block.
Kings head coach Luke Walton often runs a pick-and-roll offense. Williams is one of the rare players that can be used either as the roll man or the ball handler. He is a gifted passer for his size and could allow Sacramento to run pick-and-roll action with two 6-foot-8 players, which could take the Kings offense to the next level.
Even though Williams only scored 9.5 points per game coming off the bench as a freshman, those points came in a variety of ways. As his handle gets tighter, Williams should be able to create shots for himself off the dribble. When he drives he can either push all the way to the basket or use his pull-up skills to splash a midrange jumper.
Another plus for Williams is that he doesn’t need to be included in the play to be effective. His shooting is good enough to provide spacing and he is an aggressive cutter. He can set screens, crash for rebounds or simply wait for open look beyond the arc. His offensive versatility will allow him to play nearly any role in any lineup.
WEAKNESSES
There is one glaring problem with Williams. He turns the ball over at an alarming rate, and for alarming reasons. Travel violations and charging fouls are often the culprits. Williams is also the rare prospect who has a problem with simply stepping out of bounds too much. Hopefully a good coaching staff will be able to fix these issues.
Another significant concern is how Williams will work if his shooting does not improve. He’s not bad from 3-point range, but he is not great either. His 32-percent rate from deep is thoroughly average. However, his diverse midrange game and impressive 83.8-percent mark from the free-throw line are encouraging signs.
Most folks that are low on Williams will tell you his athleticism is a problem. While it’s true that he is never the quickest player on the court, I believe his strength can offset that. Very few 18-year-old forwards enter the league at a lean, mean 225 pounds. Williams is not fast compared to most of his peers, but he is stronger than almost all of them.
While he will be a quality team defender from Day 1, Williams still has work to do in isolation situations. Here’s where the lack of quickness can hurt him. He won’t be a go-to stopper, and would be better served defending the opposition’s second-best forward. The chances for Williams to ever effectively guard the best of the best are slim.
FIT WITH THE KINGS
Williams is one of the best possible solutions to the biggest problem with Sacramento’s roster. He would join Barnes as the only other player capable of guarding either forward spot. Bogdan Bogdanovic and Jeffries are too small. Nemanja Bjelica is too slow. James needs to add weight. Brewer is running out of time at 34 years old.
Due to his age and unpolished game, Williams will need time to develop. He should be in the rotation from the start, but might take a few years to become a sixth man and a few more to be a consistent starter.
If that is too long of a wait, Sacramento would be better served by selecting Bey. Villanova has a strong reputation for producing NBA-ready players, and the two-year age difference would help the Kings get production right away. Avdija is the best of both worlds, but he is likely to be off the board when the Kings make their pick.
Even if the Kings go in a different direction, Williams needs to be in the conversation. Sacramento has gone too long with too few options at forward. Drafting Williams would be a sign that the team is starting to understand the modern NBA, and which player types they simply can’t survive without.