Defining Success: Five keys to a successful season for the Sacramento Kings
The Sacramento Kings are nearly ready to tip off another season. And my goodness, did this one come quickly. The NBA Finals wrapped up less than two months ago and somehow the first preseason game is just days away.
It’s going to be a strange year. A pandemic continues to threaten normalcy and lives. The season calendar is nearly inverted. It’s also a huge transition year for Sacramento, which is under new front office management.
That management knows the team is a work in progress. There are no promises of playoffs this year in Sacramento. But if wins and losses aren’t the measuring stick for the Kings, what is?
1. DE’AARON FOX PLAYS LIKE AN ALL-STAR
The most meaningful thing that could happen to the Kings is for De’Aaron Fox to take another big step forward. He is already one of the top 10 guards in the Western Conference, but he needs to get in top-five range for Sacramento to become relevant in the postseason.
Fox is still just 22 years old, so there should be plenty room left for him to grow both physically and mentally. He will take on a larger role this season with the departure of Bogdan Bogdanovic. If he can stay an efficient scorer while exceeding 30% usage, he will be on the level of young All-Star guards Devin Booker and Donovan Mitchell.
Fox averaged 11.6 points per game as a rookie. He increased that figure to 17.3 in his second year and 21.1 in this third. If he has one more year of steep growth coming, he could eclipse 25 points per game and make the All-Star game. If Fox can do that, he will be worth every dime of his new $163 million contract.
2. BUDDY HIELD DRAMA DISAPPEARS
The Kings are in a difficult spot as a franchise. They always have been and they always will be. That’s the nature of small markets, especially ones that don’t have much recent success. It is hard for Sacramento to add talent. The Kings have to maximize every bit of it that they can get.
Buddy Hield is a good player and the Kings need to generate good value from him. That could mean trading him or it could mean keeping him. But if he stays, he can no longer be a distraction. If the biggest headlines out of Sacramento continue to be about internal chemistry issues, the team’s ability to attract talent will eventually shrink to zero.
Earlier this week, Hield insisted he never had a problem with anybody in the organization. Those statements don’t exactly align with reports about possible conflicts with coaches Dave Joerger in 2019 and Luke Walton in 2020. But at least he isn’t stirring the pot at the moment. As long as his postgame comments don’t make more headlines in 2021, the Kings will be in a much better place.
3. MARVIN BAGLEY STAYS HEALTHY
Marvin Bagley has played in 75 games and missed 79. That type of a ratio is severe enough to sink any career. One major injury can set a player back permanently and repeated smaller injuries can be just as bad. He’s not just missing games, but practice time too. He hasn’t been in a normal developmental rhythm since 2018.
When on the court, Bagley has been productive. He owns averages of 14.8 points and 7.6 rebounds for his young career. There is zero doubt those numbers will continue to impress, but the finer points of the game have to be learned in live action. If Bagley is going to contribute to wins one day, he has to play as much as possible.
No one can grow without opportunity. Bagley’s body needs to give him that chance. It’s hard to imagine him being a superstar at this point, but that’s not the end of the world. He can still become a core piece of the franchise for the next decade if he can stay healthy.
4. OTHER YOUNG PLAYERS ARE PRIORITIZED
Sacramento only brought in cheap, short-term free agents this offseason. But none of them are young or have a significant chance to get much better. The way that playing time is distributed between the new veterans and the returning prospects is going to tell us a lot about this franchise.
Hassan Whiteside played 30 minutes per game last season and Glenn Robinson III played 28.8. Those numbers should be cut in half. DaQuan Jeffries, Justin James and Kyle Guy barely played at all last year. That also must change.
Rookies Tyrese Haliburton, Robert Woodard and Jahmi’us Ramsey need opportunities as well. Haliburton is probably safe in that regard, but Jeffries and Woodard need real game experience, even if they struggle. Ramsey, James and Guy deserve to be worked in regularly too.
5. MONTE MCNAIR MAKES A DEAL
The current Kings roster doesn’t make much sense. There is a strange divide between win-now and win-later players. And there isn’t enough of either to define a direction. That puts the team in danger of landing in no-man’s land. They could miss the playoffs while also missing out on a premium draft pick.
The Kings have finished between 9th and 12th in the Western Conference in each of the last five seasons. That is exactly where you don’t want to be. It’s a range where an NBA team can get stuck, and the Kings did just that under former general manager Vlade Divac. New general manager Monte McNair needs to make significant changes to avoid stretching that streak to a sixth year.
McNair’s first offseason didn’t move the needle in that regard, but there is still plenty of time. Hield, Harrison Barnes, Nemanja Bjelica and Cory Joseph are vets that could help a playoff team right now. Trading one of them makes an awful lot of sense. Trading several of them would be even better.
THE BIG PICTURE
If all of these things happen, the Kings will be in a very good place. It won’t matter if they win 40 games or 20. They’ll have a better outlook than they have in the last five seasons – maybe even the last 10.
Checking at least three of the five boxes is a reasonable benchmark. For example, if Fox and Bagely’s situation don’t get markedly better, some roster turnover along with a focus on young players and the end of the Hield drama would still signify progress.
However, things could get grim if none of these goals are achieved. It’s not hard to imagine Sacramento getting stuck in neutral again. So while wins and losses won’t matter all that much, this season will still be pivotal to the future.