Kings mailbag: Where’s Bagley? Will he start? Strength of schedule for play-in teams?
Welcome back to Kings Land, where playoff hopes flourish and then fade away at the first hint of optimism or expectations.
The Kings followed three- and four-game winning streaks with a nine-game losing streak in February. They won five in a row in late March to get within one game of the Golden State Warriors for the final play-in spot, but now they’ve lost four in a row, falling to 12th in the Western Conference.
Veteran forward Harrison Barnes said there was “no tomorrow” for the Kings after they suffered a disappointing 116-106 loss to the Minnesota Timberwolves on Monday night in Minneapolis. Sacramento now trails the Warriors by two games and the New Orleans Pelicans by a half-game with 21 games remaining. There’s still time to end the longest active playoff drought in the NBA — or at least makes things interesting by reaching the play-in tournament — but the margin for error is shrinking by the day.
Point guard De’Aaron Fox said the Kings have to “find a better level of consistency.” They win some. Then they lose some. One night they nearly knock off a top playoff contender like the Milwaukee Bucks. The very next night they lose by 10 to a team like the Timberwolves, who have the worst record in the NBA.
“We’re in there with a playoff team and coming down to the last moment or the last few possessions,” Fox said. “And then against teams that aren’t as high up in the standings, we’ve played worse in those games sometimes.”
So who are these guys? What’s next for the Kings of inconsistency? What does the road ahead look like and what happens when Marvin Bagley III returns from injury? We all have questions. Let’s search for some answers in this week’s Kings mailbag.
Note: Some questions have been edited for length or clarity.
Strength of schedule
@richnguyen asks: How does the Kings’ remaining strength of schedule compare to other teams in the play-in mix?
For now we’ll say the teams in the play-in mix are the No. 7 Dallas Mavericks, No. 8 Memphis Grizzlies, No. 9 San Antonio Spurs, No. 10 Warriors, No. 11 Pelicans and No. 12 Kings.
The teams that finish seventh, eighth, ninth and 10th in each conference will participate in a play-in tournament. The winner of the Seven-Eight Game will be awarded the No. 7 seed. The loser of that game will play the winner of the Eight-Nine Game for the No. 8 seed.
The Kings have fallen seven games behind the Mavericks and 4 ½ games behind the Grizzlies, so reaching the Seven-Eight Game looks unlikely. Sacramento is 3 ½ games behind San Antonio for ninth, two games behind the Warriors for 10th and a half-game behind the Pelicans for 11th.
Among those teams, the Spurs have the most difficult remaining schedule with a .559 opponent’s winning percentage, according to Tankathon.com. The Spurs still have to play two games against the Utah Jazz, three against the Phoenix Suns and one against the Philadelphia 76ers.
The Pelicans (.514) and Kings (.503) also have a fairly difficult road ahead. The Pelicans, who have the ninth-most difficult remaining schedule, still have to play two games against the 76ers, two against the Nets, one against the Los Angeles Clippers and one against the Denver Nuggets. The Kings, who have the 11th-most difficult remaining schedule, have three games against the Jazz and Mavericks and one against the Suns and Lakers. The Mavericks (.460), Warriors (.467) and Grizzlies (.488) have the easiest remaining schedules among play-in hopefuls.
The Kings have to be considered a long shot at this point, but they can improve their chances by cleaning house in several head-to-head matchups with their top play-in competition. They will play the Pelicans on Monday, the Warriors on April 25, the Spurs on May 7 and the Grizzlies on May 13-14.
Where’s Marvin Bagley III?
@BobNEastSac asks: Is Bagley present at the games?
No, Bagley has been away from the team since fracturing the fourth metacarpal in his left hand in a 122-116 loss to the Charlotte Hornets on March 15. An update on his status is expected sometime next week.
Sources told The Sacramento Bee the organization has a plan for Bagley’s return and the team has remained in constant communication with the 22-year-old forward from Duke. Kings coach Luke Walton confirmed that, saying: “There’s a plan in place that’s been worked out with the powers that be and it’s more difficult right now just because of the world we’re living in with the pandemic and everything else, but everything we need him to do, he’s doing. There’s communication between the group as far as the fitness, the rehab, the doctors — all that’s happening.”
Earlier this week, Walton said Bagley is getting close to a return.
“He continues to get better and he’s working out,” Walton said. “He’ll rejoin the team soon and, obviously, we’ll have to continue to evaluate him as he heals up.”
Will Bagley start?
@daraseanby asks: Will the Kings start Bagley again this season if he returns from injury?
Walton hasn’t addressed this topic yet, so we don’t know what he’s thinking now, but I can tell you what he said when Bagley got hurt and rookie Tyrese Haliburton was inserted into the starting lineup.
“We’ll give it some time,” Walton said. “It’ll be at least for the near future and then we’ll continue to evaluate what’s best for our group.”
The Kings won five in a row after Haliburton became a starter, but they’ve lost four in a row since then. There was an immediate surge in Sacramento’s output and efficiency at the offensive end, but over the past four games the Kings’ offensive rating has dropped to 106.4 and they are last in the league in rebounding percentage at 43.9%.
The small-ball lineup has some advantages in terms of spacing and shooting with Buddy Hield at small forward, Harrison Barnes at power forward and Richaun Holmes at center, but the Kings are giving up a lot of size and strength. They were outrebounded 54-43, 55-38, 47-40 and 51-42 in their past four games.
Bagley will help the Kings clean up those rebounding numbers whether he starts or comes off the bench. We’ll probably see him in a backup role once he’s cleared to return just by virtue of the fact that he’s been out for a while, but Walton will keep his options open if he believes a change is warranted.
What’s up with Kyle Guy?
@PeteGeorge3 asks: What’s the latest with Kyle Guy? Us Indy folks like to keep tabs.
Guy was named Mr. Basketball in Indiana in 2016 before he went on to win a national championship at Virginia in 2019. Now he’s Sacramento’s Guy and I can report that Kings fans root for him every chance they get.
Guy has played sparingly for the Kings this season, but he enjoyed a starring role off the bench in a 141-119 victory over the Warriors on March 25. He scored 17 points on 6-of-9 shooting with four 3-pointers, six rebounds and four assists in 22 electrifying minutes.
Guy will be a restricted free agent this summer with a qualifying offer of $1.65 million. With Fox, Haliburton, Hield, Delon Wright, Robert Woodard II and Jahmi’us Ramsey all under contract for next season, and with Terence Davis also entering restricted free agency, Guy faces an uncertain future with the Kings.
The 23-year-old guard has clearly put a lot of work into his game and his body. Hopefully he will have a chance to showcase his improvement net season whether that is in Sacramento or somewhere else.
Happy or sad
@grrstudio asks: Can the Kings put out a calendar telling us which will be good weeks and which will be bad weeks so I can better organize my time? That would be so helpful.
I’m afraid it’s not that simple, sir. This is a team that can sweep the Nuggets, sweep the Boston Celtics and beat the Clippers, then turn around and lose a bunch of games to the Magic, Grizzlies, Bulls and Timberwolves.
The Kings still lose a lot of games they should win, and they’ve won some games they probably should have lost, so there’s no telling what they’ll do next. The upcoming schedule will pit the Kings against the Detroit Pistons, Jazz, Pelicans, Washington Wizards, Suns and Mavericks. Then they’ll play a back-to-back set against the Timberwolves before facing the Warriors, Mavericks, Jazz, Lakers and Mavericks again.
Please plan accordingly.
This story was originally published April 7, 2021 at 5:00 AM.
