How NBA draft lottery works and why Sacramento Kings could be disappointed
Sacramento Kings fans are keeping their fingers crossed for the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft, but they could be very disappointed.
The Kings have nearly a 50% chance of receiving one of the top four picks, but the individual pick odds tell a much different story that ends with them falling to No. 7 in the draft.
Sacramento’s fate will be decided during the NBA draft lottery Sunday at McCormick Place Convention Center in Chicago. The lottery will be held in a private room before the draft order is unveiled at noon on ABC.
NBC Sports California’s Deuce Mason will be one of 16 media observers present in the lottery room. Kings general manager Scott Perry will represent Sacramento on stage during the television presentation.
The lottery system uses 1,001 ping-pong balls numbered 1-14. A series of four four-ball combinations are drawn to determine the top four picks. The remaining picks will be assigned in reverse order of the regular-season standings.
BYU forward AJ Dybantsa, Kansas guard Darryn Peterson, Duke forward Cameron Boozer and North Carolina forward Caleb Wilson are widely projected as the top picks in the draft. Other projected top-10 picks include Houston guard Kingston Flemmings, Illinois guard Keaton Wagler, Arkansas guard Darius Acuff Jr., Tennessee forward Nate Ament, Arizona guard Brayden Burries and Louisville guard Mikel Brown Jr.
Sacramento goes into the lottery with the fifth-best odds after going 22-60 to tie the Utah Jazz for the fourth-worst record in the NBA. The Kings have a 45.2% chance of landing one of the top four picks. They can fall no lower than ninth in the draft and are highly unlikely to fall farther than eighth.
The Kings have an 11.5% chance of winning the lottery to secure the No. 1 pick. They have an 11.4% chance at the No. 2 pick, an 11.2% chance at the No. 3 pick and an 11% chance at the No. 4 pick. Sacramento has a 2% chance at the No. 5 pick, an 18.2% chance at the No. 6 pick, a 25.5% chance at the No. 7 pick, an 8.5% chance at the No. 8 pick and a 0.6% chance at the No. 9 pick.
Here’s how teams in the fifth position have fared under the current lottery format:
2019: Atlanta Hawks dropped from fifth to eighth
2020: Detroit Pistons dropped from fifth to seventh
2021: Cleveland Cavaliers jumped from fifth to third
2022: Indiana Pacers dropped from fifth to sixth
2023: Portland Trail Blazers jumped from fifth to third
2024: San Antonio Spurs jumped from fifth to fourth
2025: Philadelphia 76ers jumped from fifth to third
The Kings have not been awarded the No. 1 pick since 1989, when they selected Pervis Ellison, one of the biggest busts in NBA history. The Kings quickly gave up on Ellison atter injuries limited him to 34 games during his rookie season, sending him to the Washington Bullets in a three-team trade involving the Utah Jazz.
The Kings have had six top-10 picks in the past 10 years. They drafted De’Aaron Fox at No. 5 in 2017, Marvin Bagley III at No. 2 in 2018, Davion Mitchell at No. 9 in 2021 and Keegan Murray at No. 4 in 2022.
In 2016, the Kings traded No. 8 pick Marquese Chriss to the Phoenix Suns for the draft rights to Bogan Bogdanovic, No. 13 pick Georgios Papagiannis and No. 28 pick Skal Labissiere. In 2017, they traded No. 10 pick Zach Collins to the Portland Trail Blazers for the rights to No. 15 pick Justin Jackson and No. 20 pick Harry Giles III.
This story was originally published May 9, 2026 at 1:58 PM.
