49ers vs. Panthers: Fantasy and betting advice from a beat writer

The unbeaten 49ers return home Sunday to play the Carolina Panthers in what’s shaping up to be a difficult match up for Jimmy Garoppolo and the offense.

Consider, Carolina has the NFL’s eighth ranked passing defense, it’s coming off a bye week and has a defensive front loaded with first-round picks going against an offensive line that is likely to be without left tackle Joe Staley (who hasn’t played since Week 2) and right tackle Mike McGlinchey for the third straight game.

A strong case can be made the Panthers will have the best defense Kyle Shanahan has faced this year. And Sunday’s game could be the most beat up the offense has been all year. The 49ers on Friday ruled out Kyle Juszczyk, who is still at least two games from returning and tight end Levine Toilolo is entering the weekend as questionable due to a groin injury.

Toilolo’s injury may not seem all that important. But the circumstances dictate otherwise. Toilolo, who is nearly the size of an offensive tackle, is often used as an extension of the offensive line in both pass protection and the running game. Him not playing would mean first-year tackle replacements Justin Skule and Daniel Brunksill an island against the Panthers elite pass rushers Mario Addison (6.5 sacks) and dynamo rookie Brian Burns (4.5 sacks).

But the 49ers have a couple important things going for them: Their defense remains unarguably the best in the NFC at the moment, which means Cam Newton’s replacement Kyle Allen could be in for a rough afternoon. And the Panthers have been mediocre at slowing the run, which has been the energy source for San Francisco’s offense.

Let’s dive into our fantasy and betting advice for Sunday’s game.

49ers fantasy advice: Start these two

49ers defense: One of the easiest predictions of the year was writing that Washington last week would struggle against the league’s second-ranked fantasy defense (in standard scoring). That turned out to be correct. Washington scored exactly zero points and managed just 154 total yards. Yes, a lot of that had to do with the horrendous conditions. But we’re sticking with the same approach here. Allen has played well this season, not throwing an interception during his four starts as he enters Sunday with the league’s fourth-best passer rating. But something is fishy about that statistic given Pro Football Focus has Allen as the No. 27-ranked quarterback this season, according to their grading system. Allen hasn’t gone against a defense like San Francisco’s.

WR Emmanuel Sanders: Shanahan said Friday Sanders has transitioned quickly to his complex offense thanks largely to coming from Denver, who employ Shanahan’s former quarterbacks coach, Rich Scangarello, as their offensive coordinator. Sanders seems rejuvenated after leaving quarterback purgatory with Joe Flacco in Denver and joining the upstart 49ers with Garopppolo under center. Sanders appears to be the perfect wideout for Shanahan’s scheme. He can threaten at all levels of the field, is a good route runner, and knows how to get open. We’re predicting a strong game from Sanders because San Francisco absolutely needs it from him. Expect Carolina to sell out to stop the run, which could allow Sanders opportunities to make big plays in his debut.

49ers fantasy advice: sit these two

QB Jimmy Garoppolo: We thought Garoppolo might have a big week in Washington, but that was before we realized two of every species was needed on Noah’s Ark so life could survive at FedEx Field. Garoppolo went a second-straight week without a touchdown pass and threw another bad interception. He cleaned things up in the second half and completed eight straight passes following his third-quarter pick en route to three-straight field goal drives. Sitting Garoppolo is likely the smart play because the Panthers are strong where the 49ers are weak: along the edges. And Carolina’s defense ranks fourth in the NFL in drives that end in turnovers. Garoppolo has six interceptions in six starts and has fumbled five times in the past four games.

49ers running backs: Did we mention the 49ers could be without their two starting tackles (again), their fullback (again) and now their blocking tight end (Toilolo)? It sounds like this could be a game where Shanahan has to rely heavily on 11 personnel (three receivers, one running back and a tight end), which is not the offense’s strength. That could also make it difficult to run given how important Juszczyk and Toilolo had been as blockers. San Francisco has averaged just 2.95 yards per carry over the past two games since Juszczyk has been out (yes, we know, the conditions in Washington weren’t great). The numbers say Carolina’s Achilles heal might be stopping the run. But they have too much talent on the defensive front (Hello, Luke Kuechly) to think they won’t be able to slow Matt Breida and Tevin Coleman on Sunday.

49ers-Panthers prediction against the spread

Being .500 would feel much better than 2-4. But that’s where we sit after six games because the 49ers beat Washington by 9 points last week allowing the fighting Daniel Snyders to cover the 10-point spread. I’m shaking my fist at the local weather person in between paragraphs.

The Panthers lead the NFL with 27 sacks – and the 49ers might have to throw the ball as Carolina stuffs the box to stop the run against San Francisco’s inferior blockers. Which means this could be the week all the injuries on offense finally catch up to San Francisco.

If we’re being honest, the 49ers going 3-0 without both starting tackles against two playoffs contenders (Rams and Panthers, sorry Washington) seems too much to ask, doesn’t it?

Unless, somehow, Shanahan can continue to defy the laws of physics and get enough production from the running game to void the issues in pass protection yet again.

Here’s the problem. The 49ers have averaged just 2.95 yards per rush over the past two games, including the rain-soaked heap in Washington. But the team clearly needs to perform better on the ground to score points against the Panthers’ defense that’s allowing just 4.9 yards per play, fourth best in the NFL.

Or, perhaps Jimmy Garoppolo can finally win a game with his arm after San Francisco relied so heavily on the ground game so this point. The defense on the other side seems suited to slow down Christian McCaffrey.

But it’s hard to feel confident about a side this week. The Panthers, coming off the bye, could have the defensive formula to deal the 49ers their first loss. The home team, of course, has the defense to make Kyle Allen finally look like a backup quarterback.

San Francisco is favored by 5.5 points, which seems like a lot considering the injuries on offense. And the defenses in this game are both good.

So we’re going to take Carolina to cover the spread, the 49ers to win outright, and bet heavily on the under 42 total points.

Let the climb back to .500 begin!

Final score prediction: 49ers 13, Panthers 10

Record this season (against the spread) 2-4