How can the 49ers reach (and win) Super Bowl LIV? Here are 5 things that must happen
The opponent in the NFL Playoffs’ Divisional Round is set and the 49ers’ path to a sixth championship is mapped out.
Win two home games — first against the Minnesota Vikings, then either the Green Bay Packers or Seattle Seahawks — and advance to Super Bowl LIV in Miami.
The 49ers would likely be favored in their next two games as the No. 1 seed in the NFC, which means getting to play at Levi’s Stadium. But as the New Orleans Saints learned Sunday, beating the Vikings won’t be easy — and the following game will likely be even more difficult for coach Kyle Shanahan’s team that’s making its first postseason journey together.
Let’s look at five things San Francisco must do to eventually hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
1. Avoid a drop off at center
The 49ers are getting healthier as they enter January. However, they will be without one of their most important offensive lineman, center Weston Richburg, who was named a Pro Bowl alternate for his bounce-back campaign after playing hurt throughout 2018. Richburg was signed to one of the most lucrative deals in the NFL for the position and was earning it this season for his work in the team’s complicated outsize zone running scheme and in pass protection.
But he was lost to injured reserve when he tore the patellar tendon in his knee last month, thrusting Ben Garland into a much larger role. Garland, 31, has 10 career starts, mostly coming at guard before this season. He joined the 49ers in the spring after playing as a reserve for Shanahan during his final season as the Atlanta Falcons offensive coordinator in 2016.
Garland has allowed three pressures and no sacks since replacing Richburg, according to Pro Football Focus, and he’s thrown a number of key blocks downfield on long running plays to showcase his athleticism. But Garland will likely be the target of opposing defenses, starting Saturday against Vikings mastermind Mike Zimmer, who put his talented defensive ends Danielle Hunter and Everson Griffin inside for spells Sunday in New Orleans.
Yes, the 49ers have the NFL’s second-ranked rushing offense. But the team’s running backs are averaging just 1.7 yards after contact, the seventh-lowest number in the league (their yards before contact, 2.9, ranks fourth). That means Garland’s play will be key for San Francisco’s rushing attack to remain effective. Being good on the ground opens things up for the rest of the offense. The 49ers’ 1,473 yards on play-action passes ranks third in the NFL.
2. Play with ‘legendary’ energy
Linebacker Kwon Alexander never had more than seven combined tackles in a game this season. But his impact on the 49ers’ defense couldn’t be measured by the stat sheet before going on injured reserve after tearing his pectoral on Halloween.
“He’s probably the MVP of our team. He’s the energy, all the time,” defensive lineman Nick Bosa said of Alexander last week.
Alexander returned to practice last week and there’s a good chance he’s back in the lineup Saturday after Shanahan said he initially didn’t expect Alexander back until the NFC championship. The emotional void left by Alexander and his “legendary” mindset could be filled at just the right time.
“Him really being in the game and being able to go hit somebody and get everybody going, it’s super important,” Bosa said.
The 49ers defense had a statistical downturn in the later half of the season. The competition improved; injuries along the defensive line, including to Dee Ford, zapped the team’s depth; strong safety Jaquiski Tartt went down and Alexander got hurt.
San Francisco during the first seven games allowed 224.4 yards to opponents. The following nine, after Alexander got hurt, that number jumped to 326.
The team is optimistic Ford (hamstring), Tartt (rib) and Alexander will play Saturday.
3. Jimmy Garoppolo must join the club
The biggest knock against Jimmy Garoppolo entering the playoffs is his inexperience. He doesn’t have the same résumé as other playoff quarterbacks, which leads to questions about whether he can do it on the game’s biggest stage.
That’s not unique. Steve Young faced the same questions before he finally won a Super Bowl as the full-time starter in the 1994-95 season. Garoppolo’s brand equity would take a massive jump if he were to carry the 49ers deep into the playoffs during his first run.
Consider, Garoppolo’s passing numbers this season were strong. He was fourth in the league in completion rate (69.1 percent), third in yards per attempt (8.4), tied for fifth in touchdown passes (27), tied for the lead with four fourth-quarter comeback drives and finished eighth in passer rating (102.0).
His rating was higher than Deshaun Watson (98.0), Aaron Rodgers (95.4), Matt Ryan (92.1), Philip Rivers (88.5) and his former mentor, Tom Brady (88.0). But those quarterbacks don’t face the same questions as Garoppolo because their résumés are more expansive.
Garoppolo’s Achilles’ heel is interceptions. His 13 picks were tied for the sixth-most in the league. And he lost five fumbles of his 10 fumbles, two of which were crucial during the November loss to the Seahawks. But Garoppolo has cleaned up that area of his game as the season wore on. He had 10 interceptions during his first 10 games and just three over the final six.
If he continues to play like he did over the final nine games, when he had a 107.6 rating with a 3-to-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio, he might find his name on the list of elite quarterbacks heading into next season.
4. Make red zone trips count
The 49ers finished the regular season scoring touchdowns on just over 53 percent (33 of 62) of their trips, ranking near the bottom third of the league.
The games at Tampa Bay during Week 1 and rain-soaked Washington in Week 7 saw the 49ers go 0 for 7 combined. In other games, they converted 60 percent of their red-zone trips, which ranks among the top 11.
Over the final four games, San Francisco went 11 of 17 (65 percent), which is near the top. It was a clear area of improvement late in the season.
Numbers aside, scoring touchdowns in the red zone will go a long way toward determining how far the 49ers go in the playoffs. Settling for Robbie Gould field goals, after he missed a career-high eight in 2019, could be the reason the team ends up falling short of expectations. Fans don’t need to be reminded about failed red-zone trips in big games.
5. Adjust when George Kittle is taken away
Tight end George Kittle averaged 7.6 targets per game as San Francisco’s clear No. 1 option in the passing game. Rookie receiver Deebo Samuel had 5.4 and Emmanuel Sanders 5.3.
Opponents, starting with Minnesota, are going to do all they can to limit Kittle and force Garoppolo to look to his receivers, neither of whom have been with the club for more than a full season.
The Vikings allowed just one touchdown catch to a tight end all season despite 128 targets. Receivers, meanwhile, scored 18 touchdowns against Minnesota.
Kittle on Saturday will square off against talented players looking to slow him down, including safeties Harrison Smith and Anthony Harris, and All-Pro linebacker Eric Kendricks.
Shanahan being able to adjust on the fly, and figure out ways to get his receivers open while defenses key on Kittle, could go a long way toward defining postseason success. It underscores the value of Sanders since he arrived via trade in late October.
Since then, Garoppolo averaged a robust 8.62 yards per attempt, up from 7.87.
Honorable mentions
▪ Get strong play at cornerback opposite Richard Sherman. The 49ers benched Ahkello Witherspoon on the final drive in the regular-season finale and it remains to be seen whether the club will stick with Emmanuel Moseley or go back to starting Witherspoon.
▪ Continue the hot streak from running back Raheem Mostert, who has eight touchdowns over his last eight games.
▪ Win the turnover battle. The 49ers were 4-1 when they had more takeaways than their opponents. Their only loss was the overtime game against Seattle at Levi’s Stadium.
▪ Convert third downs. San Francisco went 4-12, 4-12 and 6-15 on third down (35 percent) in their three losses. In other games, they converted 76 of 161 (47 percent).
This story was originally published January 6, 2020 at 3:16 PM.
