49ers NFL Draft preview: Everything to know before Round 1 and beyond
A championship window and winnowing cap space means Thursday night’s NFL draft is imperative for the 49ers.
How important can a draft class be? John Lynch and Kyle Shanahan hit home runs last year by landing season-altering players like Nick Bosa, Deebo Samuel and Dre Greenlaw, who were crucial in reaching the Super Bowl. That trio joined previous draftees like George Kittle, Fred Warner and Mike McGlinchey to compose a roster that remains one of the NFL’s most talented.
Another strong draft class could be the difference between falling back to the pack and reaching another Super Bowl. Meanwhile, the club’s cap space has narrowed from some $87 million when Shanahan and Lynch took over in 2017, to under $14 million now that the club has given out big contracts to players such as Jimmy Garoppolo, Arik Armstead, Dee Ford, Joe Staley and Richard Sherman.
San Francisco decided it didn’t have room to pay for star defensive lineman DeForest Buckner, who was traded for the No. 13 overall pick to the Indianapolis Colts. The 49ers are also dealing with the loss of top receiver Emmanuel Sanders, who signed with the New Orleans Saints for two years and a max of $19 million.
There’s plenty of work to be done under the unique circumstances of the NFL’s virtual draft kicks off Thursday.
The backdrop
Lynch spoke with reporters on a Zoom video conference from his guest house Monday, which has been converted to his personal war room. That’s because all team facilities are closed due to the ongoing COVID-19 crisis, making this one of the most unique drafts in history.
Under normal circumstances, pro days and face-to-face interviews are a crucial part of the pre-draft process. But travel restrictions prevented the usual 30 prospect visits each team gets before the draft. And canceled pro days meant scouts were unable to double back with players following February’s scouting combine. Lynch and top personnel executive, Adam Peters, last year traveled to Columbus to have an extended meeting with Bosa surrounding his Ohio State pro day.
But the biggest hurdle facing teams could be the medical side. Teams are usually able to have prospects examined by their own medical staffs before the draft to get an idea on where prospects are in recovering from injuries. Without those examinations, teams would be taking massive risks on players with injury concerns.
Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa is becoming the biggest wild card of the draft, which could directly impact the 49ers. He dislocated his hip in November and teams haven’t been able to gauge his rehabilitation since the combine. If healthy, Tagovailoa would be a shoe-in top-three pick, but the the unknown of his medical status could mean he falls in the draft, with a team like San Francisco at 13 possibly trading the pick to a team in the market for a quarterback.
But would a general manager make a career-defining choice like picking an injured quarterback early in the draft without assurance from his medical staff that Tagovailoa will be okay to play? That’s one of the biggest questions entering Thursday.
The picks
The 49ers traded away their second-round pick for Dee Ford last offseason. In October, they dealt third- and fourth-rounders to the Broncos for Sanders while getting a fifth in return. So the 49ers, who drafted 10, nine and eight players in the last three drafts, respectively, have just seven picks this year, and just two before Round 5.
Round 1 — No. 13 (via Indianapolis)
Round 1 — No. 31
Round 5 — No. 11, 156 overall (via Denver)
Round 5 — No. 31, 176 overall
Round 6 — No. 31, 210 overall
Round 7 — No. 3, 217 overall (via Detroit)
Round 7 — No. 31, 245 overall
Having two first-round picks and none on Friday (rounds 2 and 3) means the 49ers are prime candidates to trade down from one or both of their first-round selections for more rolls of the dice.
The needs
With Buckner and Sanders gone, the 49ers have immediate voids in the starting lineup at defensive tackle and wide receiver. They also must consider finding future replacements for Joe Staley and Richard Sherman at offensive tackle and cornerback. There will also be a new starter at right guard in 2020 after Mike Person was released last month.
Other needs could include tight end, safety and linebacker. The 49ers would love to find an understudy for Kittle, who can lighten his load while also allowing the team to utilize two-tight end sets more often. At safety, Jimmie Ward has a lengthy injury history and Jaquiski Tartt is entering the last year of his contract. Linebacker Kwon Alexander also has a long injury history and is due to cost over $16 million in 2021 and 2022, which could lead to San Francisco moving on sooner than expected.
The prospects
This class of receivers is considered one of the best in years, if not the best ever. That’s lofty, but there’s a real chance six receivers go in the first round. In that sense, it’s a great time for the 49ers to be in the market for a wideout.
CeeDee Lamb (Oklahoma), Jerry Jeudy (Alabama) and Henry Ruggs III (Alabama) all appear in play at No. 13. But the 49ers must decide if they want to use their premium asset on a receiver while they likely won’t have an offseason program to learn Shanahan’s complex offense. There are other options later, like LSU’s Justin Jefferson, TCU’s Jalen Reagor, Arizona State’s Brandon Aiyuk, Baylor’s Denzel Mims, Clemson’s Tee Higgins and USC’s Michael Pittman Jr., who could all be in the mix late Round 1 or in Round 2. Names to watch later include Bryan Edwards (South Carolina), Van Jefferson (Florida) and Tyler Johnson (Minnesota).
At defensive tackle, Javon Kinlaw (South Carolina) and Derrick Brown (Auburn) would be the most likely candidates to replace Buckner at 13 overall. Later, keep an eye on TCU’s Ross Blacklock, Missouri’s Jordan Elliott, Oklahoma’s Neville Gallimore and Alabama’s Raekwon Davis.
Cornerback: Trevon Diggs (Alabama), C.J. Henderson (Florida), Noah Igbinoghene (Auburn), Jeff Gladney (TCU), Jaylon Johnson (Utah), A.J. Terrell (Clemson) and Bryce Hall (Virginia) could all be options in the first three rounds.
The rumor mill
Peter King of NBC Sports wrote earlier this month he believes the 49ers are in the market for a space-eating defensive tackle like Kinlaw. That would certainly make sense, as Kinlaw is often compared to Buckner, the player he would be replacing. Of course San Francisco has been linked to the top receiver prospects, most notably Ruggs, who would fit Shanahan’s offense perfectly and provide a speed element the Chiefs have with Tyreek Hill.
Lynch confirmed Monday he was open to trading back from both first-round picks, which would be common sense since San Francisco is facing a gap of 125 picks between selections.
Finally, the 49ers have been talking to teams about their interest in trading receiver Marquise Goodwin, Lynch confirmed Monday, and Alexander, Dee Ford and Tartt, according to The Athletic. The common theme among those players: pricey contracts and availability question marks. Tartt may have the most trade value of the group.
The draft crush
It’s Alabama safety Xavier McKinney, who’s gotten exactly zero buzz to San Francisco throughout the draft process.
Why McKinney and not a receiver? He’s one of the most bust-proof players in the draft class and would provide a play-making upgrade in the secondary over the oft-injured Tartt, who could be traded. McKinney has all the tools to be the next star safety in the league and adds the intangibles the 49ers look for in their foundational players, which isn’t common in the first round of this draft.
The uncertain offseason would make ingratiating a receiver difficult. Skill players generally take two years to develop within Shanahan’s complex playbook, so should a Super Bowl contender invest its most premium resource in the position right now? It might not be wise.
That doesn’t mean the 49ers shouldn’t add a receiver. It’s arguably their most glaring need on the roster. But it would be more prudent to add a surefire contributor like McKinney and take a lesser risk in the second or third round on a wideout. Plus, the 49ers could trade back from 13 for multiple picks to land McKinney, meaning they have a chance to replace Buckner with multiple starters.