49ers mailbag: How long until Shanahan’s team is good again? Will Jimmy G come back?

We pushed our weekly mailbag back a day this week because the 49ers host the Packers on Thursday night and there was a lot of important stuff to get to Tuesday, including coach Kyle Shanahan’s updates on Jimmy Garoppolo and George Kittle’s injuries.

There were no surprises on the injury report for the game. The 49ers ruled out running back Tevin Coleman (knee), linebacker Demetrius Flannigan-Fowles (hamstring), Garoppolo (ankle), Kittle (foot) and receiver Deebo Samuel (hamstring). The receiving corps will also being without Kendrick Bourne, who landed on the reserve/COVID-19 list Wednesday as the team closed down its facility and began contact tracing to ensure no other players were infected.

Questionable are safety Jaquiski Tartt (groin) and receiver Richie James Jr. (ankle), who could return following their recent absences. There’s also a chance tight end Jordan Reed (knee) is activated off injured reserve in place of Kittle.

Want a crazy fact heading into Thursday’s game against Green Bay? Of the seven skill players to touch the ball during January’s NFC title game, exactly none will be available for the 49ers on Thursday night. Raheem Mostert (ankle), Coleman, Garoppolo, Samuel, Bourne, Matt Breida (who was traded for the Dolphins) and Kittle won’t be able to try to beat the Packers for a third straight time at Levi’s Stadium.

It’s been a crazy year.

With that, let’s get to your questions!

@SuperDC3 asks: How long will we have to wait for the 49ers to be good again?

I don’t think fans will have to wait very long. This is still an excellent roster with a lot of good players in their primes and there’s no way the team could repeat its horrendous injury luck next year, can it? Don’t answer that.

The 49ers will presumably get Nick Bosa and Kittle back to full health in time for the regular season. Brandon Aiyuk could take the leap from promising rookie to excellent starter between his first and second campaigns. Deebo Samuel should refine his route-running and become more of a downfield weapon. Fred Warner, who is due a new contract, could cement himself as one of the best linebackers in the league.

Inserting another draft class and trimming the fat around the roster could create a 2019-like scenario where the 49ers are better than where they ended up drafting, which was a key reason they went to the Super Bowl last season.

More specifically, if the 49ers finish 5-11 and 6-10, they’ll be in the mix for a top-10 pick, which could allow them to add a high level starter at a position of need to a roster that’s already good (again, health permitting). Whether that pick ends up being a quarterback is a discussion we’ll have over and over again until the draft in April.

Until then, fans should take solace in the fact the team still has a good head coach and talented roster. And if the pandemic ever slows giving the team a regular offseason, then it will be in a much better spot than it was entering this season.

@Marcoknowsthat asks: Do you think Jimmy is gonna be our QB next year?

I don’t know. But I did write about what’s facing the 49ers and their Garoppolo decision here.

To summarize, there are two new factors in the Garoppolo situation that popped up this year that are beyond the team’s control: the salary cap shrinking because of the pandemic and Garoppolo’s availability concerns.

Garoppolo has had two of his three seasons derailed by injuries, which has to be at the forefront of Shanahan’s mind when he decides if Garoppolo is the quarterback next season. Garoppolo tore his left ACL in 2018 and might have season-ending surgery to repair his right ankle.

The salary cap shrinking by roughly $40 million makes Garoppolo’s $26.9 cap hit much more burdensome, which will leave Shanahan to wonder if he can replicate Garoppolo’s production at a cheaper price, perhaps with a highly drafted rookie.

There are other positions that need addressing and players that should get paid. San Francisco currently has no cornerbacks signed for 2021, left tackle Trent Williams could demand a contract at the top of the tackle market (something starting at $16 million per season) and Warner could become the highest paid linebacker in the NFL.

I think the Garoppolo decision will come to where the 49ers end up picking in the draft and how easy it would be for them to move up the board and get a quarterback Shanahan likes. I’ve become a fan of Zach Wilson from BYU and encourage fans to check him out. He’s got a strong, accurate arm with good athleticism. The guy makes plays downfield, which the current offense lacks with Garoppolo at the helm.

@LamitrD asks: Did the 49ers mishandle the Dante Pettis situation and maybe hurt his career?

Shanahan is hard on receivers and Pettis clearly never took to Shanahan’s tough-love style. I find it interesting that after Pettis was added in 2018, the 49ers drafted receivers at the opposite end of the personality spectrum.

Pettis is a fun-loving, easy-going type. Samuel and Jalen Hurd, on the other hand, are guys that crave physicality and contact, and have no problem running right through defenders’ face masks. Clearly Pettis was never that kind of player.

He was claimed off waivers by the Giants on Wednesday, so it will be interesting to see if he can resurrect his career elsewhere. That will be telling in terms of evaluating how the 49ers handled him. The fact no other team was willing to give up anything in a trade for Pettis speaks volumes.

In my opinion, it’s hard to criticize San Francisco’s handling of Pettis given how Samuel and Aiyuk have developed into useful weapons. To me, it says more about Pettis and less about the team.

@RusyRyan32 asks: How do you expect the backfield to be split Thursday between Hasty and McKinnon?

Jerick McKinnon led the way last week with 35 snaps while Tevin Coleman exited the game with a knee injury after just six. Undrafted rookie JaMycal Hasty wound up playing 29 snaps, 41 percent of the total for the offense.

I think the 49ers would prefer to have McKinnon in a third-down role where he could be used in the passing game while keeping his workload modest given his knee issues over the last two seasons. Plus, giving Hasty a chance at more carries could allow San Francisco to evaluate him for next season, which could determine how the team approaches the running back spot in the spring.

Coleman and McKinnon are free agents and Jeff Wilson Jr. is restricted. Seems to me there’s a scenario where the 49ers run it back with Raheem Mostert, Wilson and Hasty and then look to add another running back or two like they have every season.

Trying to predict how Shanahan will deploy his running backs is always a tricky endeavor. But I think there’s a strong chance Hasty gets more playing time than McKinnon, while Austin Walter has a chance at getting promoted from the practice squad.

Typically Shanahan likes using two running backs in a rotation and leaving one of the bench to be used as a change of pace after halftime or replace someone with an injury. So I think Hasty gets the start, McKinnon is the second option and Walter is the third stringer that could get a handful of touches, depending on how the game goes.

This story was originally published November 5, 2020 at 7:24 AM.