49ers mock drafts: A move up to No. 3 likely means a quarterback. Who’s the best fit?
With one Friday morning announcement, the 49ers shook up the NFL’s biggest springtime event and changed the conversation across the country.
ESPN’s Adam Schefter took to social media to report that San Francisco was trading up to acquire the No. 3 overall pick in the 2021 NFL draft while sending this year’s No. 12, two other first-round picks and a 2022 third-rounder to the Miami Dolphins.
The trade all but assures that the 49ers will be selecting a quarterback with the pick, even as the team says current starter Jimmy Garoppolo will lead the way.
“Jimmy is here to say. He is our guy this year,” an NFL source told Schefter on Friday, which aligns with reports that the team doesn’t plan to trade Garoppolo, who is still under contract through the upcoming season.
Over the past few months, some analysts have thought the 49ers should draft a quarterback either with the No. 12 pick or by looking to trade up. Now the question is: Which signal-caller will be the next to wear the red and gold when the three-day draft kicks off April 29 in Cleveland?
Clemson’s Trevor Lawrence and BYU’s Zach Wilson are widely expected to go 1-2 to the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Jets, respectively. So who does that leave for the 49ers? The favorites are, in alphabetical order, Ohio State’s Justin Fields, Alabama’s Mac Jones and North Dakota State’s Trey Lance.
Should draft projections hold true and the first three picks are quarterbacks, it will be the first time that’s happened since 1999, when Tim Couch, Donovan McNabb and Akili Smith came off the board in succession.
Fields, coming off his junior season, threw for 2,100 yards, 22 touchdowns and six interceptions in eight games this past season for the Buckeyes. He also ran for 383 yards on 81 carries and scored five times.
As for Jones, in 13 games for the national champion Crimson Tide, the redshirt junior led the nation with 4,500 passing yards. He threw 41 touchdowns, second only to Florida’s Kyle Trask, and just four interceptions. Jones doesn’t run much, but he did score one rushing touchdown this past season.
Lance played just one game in 2020 before the Bison canceled their season due to COVID-19 concerns, but he was stellar a season prior, accounting for 42 total touchdowns in leading North Dakota State to its third consecutive FCS Championship victory.
The redshirt sophomore completed 66.9% of his passes for 2,786 yards, 28 touchdowns and no interceptions in 16 games. Lance also ran for 1,100 yards on 169 carries, good for 6.5 yards per attempt, and 14 scores.
Which of these men is the best fit for the 49ers? Here’s what analysts have to say.
NFL.com
Updated March 29
The league’s official website provides mock drafts from multiple analysts. The most recent post comes from Lance Zierlein, who has the 49ers selecting Lance.
“Lance was the projected selection for the 49ers in my mock draft 1.0, when they held the No. 12 pick, so it won’t be a surprise if he’s the player they’re targeting after trading up,” Zierlein wrote. “He’s such a perfect fit for Kyle Shanahan’s offense.”
CBS Sports
Updated March 29
Like NFL.com, CBS Sports offers insight and analysis from multiple writers. Ryan Wilson is the latest to weigh in. He has the 49ers taking Jones.
“It sounds crazy, and maybe it is, but we’ve heard since late last year that Jones could very well end up a top-10 pick and we’re a month away from knowing for certain,” Wilson wrote. “He certainly fits Kyle Shanahan’s system and if the 49ers love him, they’ll land him here.”
Sports Illustrated
Updated March 29
Ric Serritella — a writer with Fan Nation, part of the SI network — chalks up yet another vote for Lance.
“The 49ers are looking to reload and compete immediately,” Serritella wrote. “Jimmy Garoppolo could hold the fort until Lance is ready (for) showtime.”
USA Today
Updated March 27
Nate Davis is another who has the 49ers taking Lance.
“Lance is a physically gifted, efficient player with the trappings of a great leader,” Davis wrote. “Tantalizing to consider what a passer who can so effectively run the ball might bring to a Kyle Shanahan offense that operates at peak form when the ground game is humming. But if Lance is the choice, it might make sense to allow him to sit behind Jimmy Garoppolo while he makes the adjustment from the Football Championship Subdivision ... to the pros.”
Bleacher Report
Updated March 27
Analyst Kristopher Knox has the 49ers taking Fields.
“San Francisco’s move completely changed the predraft landscape. Things look far different than they did before the trade, and more dominoes could fall as a result of it,” Knox wrote.
“There isn’t a consensus on who the 49ers are targeting, but we’ll pair them here with Ohio State gunslinger Justin Fields. While Wilson is starting to take some of the spotlight, Fields is still a premier quarterback prospect.”
Walter Football
Updated March 30
Draft analyst Walter Cherepinsky makes frequent updates to his mock draft. However, until Friday’s trade, he held steady with the 49ers taking Virginia Tech cornerback Caleb Farley.
Now with San Francisco moving up, Cherepinsky tentatively has the team drafting Lance.
“I’m going to pencil in Lance for now, but I may change this to Fields in a future update,” he wrote. “Trey Lance has some nice physical tools, and he’s coming off a huge year in 2019.”
The Ringer
Updated March 26
Analyst Danny Kelly has the 49ers taking Lance, a player he put the team on in a Feb. 18 update to his mock when San Francisco still had the 12th pick. Kelly says Lance has shades of a “mini Josh Allen,” quarterback of the Buffalo Bills.
“For one, his skill set perfectly fits head coach Kyle Shanahan’s scheme: Lance’s transition from North Dakota State’s run-centric, play-action-based approach to Shanahan’s system with the Niners would be smooth,” Kelly wrote. “And two, if the reports that San Francisco is planning to roll with Jimmy Garoppolo as its starter for at least one more season are to believed — a big if — (it) would make a lot more sense if the franchise was grooming the inexperienced Lance, who played just one full college football season against lower-level FCS competition.”
San Diego Union-Tribune
Updated March 29
Draft analyst Eddie Brown gives another nod to Lance.
“You don’t move this much draft capital unless it’s for a quarterback,” Brown wrote. “A showcase game against Central Arkansas didn’t really do Lance’s draft stock any favors, but there’s too much arm talent and playmaking ability to deny here. He has the highest ceiling of any QB in this draft class outside of (Clemson’s Trevor) Lawrence. Sitting a season behind Jimmy Garoppolo while being coached up by offensive mastermind Kyle Shanahan will provide him the best opportunity to reach it.”
ESPN
ESPN offers randomly scheduled mocks from longtime analysts Mel Kiper Jr. and Todd McShay. Neither has posted a new mock since Friday’s trade took place, but during this offseason both have mocked scenarios in which the 49ers trade up for a quarterback.
McShay’s mock trade for a QB is more recent, coming on March 4. He had the 49ers dealing with the Denver Broncos to move up three spots to grab Jones.
“Jones doesn’t have the rushing ability of the other four QBs, but he processes quickly, has excellent ball placement on short-to-intermediate throws and shows the ability to anticipate,” McShay wrote. “He’d mesh nicely with the Niners’ quick game and could bring more balance to an offense that has run on the sixth-highest percentage of plays in the NFL since coach Kyle Shanahan took over in 2017.”
In Kiper’s Mock Draft 2.0, published Feb. 25, he had San Francisco trading up five spots with the Detroit Lions to select Fields.
“I’d love to see Fields play for Shanahan, who could get the best out of him,” Kiper wrote. “If this deal happens, San Francisco could designate Garoppolo as a post-June 1 release and save $25 million on its cap this year. That would help offset the lost draft picks in the trade because the team would have some money to spend in free agency – and bring back left tackle Trent Williams. The 49ers were really hurt by injuries last season, but they should be back in the NFC West race in 2021.”
(Note: An ESPN+ subscription is required to see full analysis from Kiper and McShay.)
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This story was originally published March 31, 2021 at 7:00 AM.