Tom McClintock’s old district is GOP territory. But a Democrat is coming on strong
Republicans badly need the 3rd District seat to win control of Congress in November, a goal that will require a net gain of five seats in the House.
The numbers say this is Republican turf. Former President Donald Trump got 50.8% of the 2020 vote. In 2018, Republican gubernatorial candidate John Cox, who won 38% statewide, received 56% in this district. Independent analysts call the Third “likely Republican.”
But the GOP glide path could get bumpy as ballots go out this week for the June 7 primary.
The top two finishers will run in the November election, and Democratic Kermit Jones is in a decent position to crash the Republican’s party.
The candidates include two well-known local GOP figures, Sacramento County Sheriff Scott Jones and Assemblyman Kevin Kiley. Kiley was among the leaders of last year’s unsuccessful effort to recall Gov. Gavin Newsom.
But Kermit Jones is a prominent Democrat who’s shown an ability to match the GOP in campaign contributions, while being careful not to portray himself as a blindly loyal Democratic partisan. Also running is Democrat David Peterson, a business consultant.
The newly-drawn congressional district, which has no incumbent, stretches from Plumas County, through the Sacramento suburbs, parts of El Dorado County and down to Inyo County.
Scott Jones, crime fighter
Jones, 54, is the tough-on-crime candidate. He’s been elected Sacramento County sheriff three times.
Asked where he differentiates himself from Kiley, Jones cited his experience running the law enforcement agency.
“It’s easy to be a critic where nobody expects actual results. I have never had that luxury,” he said. “I have the additional burden of getting things done, of leading almost 3,000 women and men, managing a half-billion dollar budget, and serving a community with results.”
His opponents, he said, have no such experience, “let alone navigating the state and federal systems to influence public safety outcomes, and those are all things that are important to voters, especially in these times.”
Jones is running an ad talking about how he “stopped the riots,” a spot with subtle but unmistakable suggestions he’s a Trump guy.
“It takes courage to stand up to a mob, character to take on the politicians, commitment to stand with President Trump and secure the border,” he said.
“Sheriff Scott Jones for Congress. He has what it takes to make America safe again,” the ad says, evoking Trump’s signature “Make America Great Again.”
Jones told The Bee that while he appreciates many of Trump’s presidential policies, “I don’t expect to be speaking for him or vice versa in this campaign, other than to comment on his policies as president if asked.”
He had never met Trump before attending a 2018 White House immigration meeting. Jones said he doesn’t expect him to have any “direct influence” on the campaign, and the former president and his backers have stayed out of the race.
His views are not by-the-book Trump. Recently, Jones said that while he’s against illegal immigration and border insecurity, he understands “We have many undocumented folks in Sacramento that I’m charged with protecting.”
But he also wants immigration laws enforced. He recalled to The Bee how “in 2014 I had an officer shot and killed by someone here illegally who had been removed from the country at least four times prior with no consequences any of the times for being here illegally.”
Sacramento Deputy Sheriff Danny Oliver and Placer County Detective Michael Davis were killed during an October, 2014, gun rampage by Luis Bracamontes, a Mexican citizen who was in the United States illegally.
Kevin Kiley, change agent
Kiley, 37, shot to statewide prominence last year as a leader of the recall effort.
While that campaign failed, and Kiley finished sixth in his bid to unseat Newsom, he said that his message lives on: that people are fed up with how state government operates.
“This is the year voters are looking for change,” he said. “That’s what I’ve done. Look how the failed policies in California have lowered our quality of life.”
Kiley called his campaign one that is “based on issues people care about.” He’s been leading the legislative push to bring down California’s gasoline prices, which have for months been the highest in the nation.
Republican legislative leaders are supporting Kiley’s bill to suspend the state’s 51 cents-a-gallon gasoline tax for six months. The tax is expected to go up about 3 cents in July.
“When fuel prices rise again in July, drivers can thank the out-of-touch politicians in Sacramento who put politics over bipartisan solutions to help all Californians,” Kiley said.
He lists several issues where he’s been active — fighting for school choice, acting as a watchdog against rogue state officials, and helping protect sexual assault victims.
In 2018, Kiley authored legislation to create an expedited process for removing school employees involved in sexual misconduct and other egregious activity. Gov. Jerry Brown signed the bill into law in September, 2018.
Kiley stresses close ties to constituents. “I’ve been a reformer, declining last year’s pay raise and giving up $40,000 annually in per diem that other legislators collect,” he said.
An Assemblyman from Rocklin, Kiley is the choice of much of the state’s Republican establishment. He has a long list of local party endorsements, including the formal blessing of the state GOP and former Gov. Pete Wilson.
“I think Kiley is trying to be ever so slightly more moderate. Jones’ views are more conservative,” said Wesley Hussey, professor of political science at California State University, Sacramento.
Kermit Jones, Democrat
Another Jones in the race is the wild card. He has raised $1.1 million, and had a healthy $802,997 on hand at the end of March. He has a familiar list of Democratic donors, including the Congressional Black Caucus PAC, and several medical and veterans group political action committees.
He’s been careful not to paint himself as a diehard partisan.
“I’m coming in as a doctor who’s treated 20,000 people…who had my own challenges. People may see the D behind my name and automatically vote a different way without giving it a second look. If I can meet just 10% of the persuadable people in my district we’ll do well,” he told The Bee.
While he said he respects House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, he added that “I see the toughest challenge is people seeing me on my record. I’m not coming in here as a Nancy Pelosi person, a fill in the blank thing who you want to run.”
Asked if he would support Pelosi for another term as House Democratic leader, Jones said, “I don’t know who else would be running. I’d have to see who’s running.” Pelosi is seeking re-election in her San Francisco-based district, but has not said whether she will seek to continue as the party’s Democratic House leader.
On the campaign trail, he talks about curbing the rising costs of living, veterans care, national security, fire and forest management, education and health care, He frets that too often politicians concentrate on making sure people have insurance, a worthy goal, but don’t deal with other pressing matters.
“In a lot of rural areas, even if you have coverage, you still can’t find a doctor. You still can’t find a nurse,” he said. The Third District has numerous pockets of small towns and rural areas. “I’d introduce legislation to incentivize providers to go into these rural areas.”
Jones, 45, is careful not to get too close to President Joe Biden, whose dismal approval ratings are lucrative ammunition for Republicans this year, or getting too critical of Trump.
“The reality is being president is one of the hardest jobs in the world. There are things Biden did well,” Jones said. He cited the $1 trillion infrastructure bill Biden signed into law in November as a major achievement.
But he acknowledged that easing the economic pain is tough, suggesting a freeze on the state and local gasoline taxes. The federal effort to do that has gone nowhere.
An unpredictable election
Kiley raised $1.12 million during the first three months of 2022, Jones about $406,000.
Kiley reported $813,493 on hand, Jones $304,281.
Republican consultant Matt Rexroad saw Kiley’s haul as unsurprising.
“Kiley did well. But he has been running for much longer and has a system built up around this,” he said.
Jon Fleischman, former state GOP executive director, saw the Republican race as leaning to Kiley, because of his resources.
Kiley has a long list of well-known endorsers, including former Gov. Pete Wilson, the state Republican Party and the GOP parties in Nevada, Placer, El Dorado, Yuba and Inyo counties.
Kiley “has been a leading advocate for smaller, smarter governing in Sacramento, holding Gavin Newsom and California Democrats accountable for their reckless and radical one-party rule,” said state GOP spokeswoman Ellie Hockenbury.
Jones has the backing of some of the state’s best known conservatives, including Reps. Tom McClintock, R-Elk Grove, Darrell Issa, R-San Marcos and Doug LaMalfa, R-Oroville.
So what the Kiley-Scott-Jones primary could come down to, analysts say is what voters want more: The tough crime fighter or the guy who tried to topple Newsom? And is there enough support for both to keep Kermit Jones from getting one of those two spots?
“Certainly law and order is going to be an issue with Republicans,” said Fleischman. But then again, “Kiley’s reputation as the foil to Newsom couldn’t come at a better time.”
Earlier versions of this story incorrectly stated that Kevin Kiley has been active “fighting school choice.” The sentence should have said active “fighting for school choice.”
This story was originally published May 10, 2022 at 5:00 AM with the headline "Tom McClintock’s old district is GOP territory. But a Democrat is coming on strong."
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