Placer County residents are ‘letting down their guard’ on COVID-19. Closures might be coming

Placer County may be preparing for more closures in the coming weeks as a result of a surge in COVID-19 cases, according to new county data.

The county’s case rate jumped to 5% in the second week of October, up from 3.9%, meaning it did not meet the criteria to move down in the state of California’s COVID-19 tier monitoring system and open more sectors of the economy.

By the end of October, it got worse, jumping to 7.8%, a figure that is considered severe by state public health officials.

Placer officials said they are not expecting those numbers to go down by next week, when the state will evaluate whether Placer will move from its current orange tier status in the state’s monitoring system. To move down into the least restrictive yellow tier, the county must have a 1% or lower adjusted rate of cases per 100,000 residents.

The county’s other two important metrics, the testing positivity rate and health equity testing positivity rate, are still stable and remain slightly over 3%. That means those metrics remain in the “moderate” risk tier.

According to the county’s COVID-19 update, Roseville, Rocklin and Lincoln were hit hardest with a combined increase of 930 cases.

Epidemiologists found that it’s not schools or nursing homes driving the surge, but rather more people passing the disease to household members as well as a growth in large gatherings.

“Public Health has noted that the percentage of positive cases who reported attending a large gathering during their infectious period was higher in October than in other months of the pandemic thus far,” according to the county’s report. “Household transmission has also continued to be a challenge.”

The majority of people who caught the virus in October reported being in close contact with someone who already had it. The next largest cause of spread was people who live in a household where another resident or family member has been infected.

Twenty percent of new cases were generated from large gatherings, the report said.

Placer risks closing business

In light of the surge, Placer’s interim public health officer cautioned county supervisors that the county may have to move up in the state’s monitoring system again, meaning businesses would have to reduce capacity. Dr. Rob Oldham said he would make a case to the state’s public health department that the county’s other metrics for measuring COVID-19 spread were still moderate, and a move to the red tier – where coronavirus spread risk is considered substantial – wouldn’t be necessary at this point.

“I’m not saying we may not need to eventually move into the red tier if current trends continue,” he said in a presentation to the board of supervisors. “We are seeing an increase in cases and our testing positivity rate. And also increasing evidence that some in our community are letting down their guard. But I’m not sure that Placer’s current numbers justify moving back into the red tier at this point.”

Hospitalizations are also high, increasing by 90% since September. Almost half of those hospitalized are not residents of Placer County, however.

By Friday, 34 people were hospitalized in Placer hospitals with COVID-19 compared to at least 68 people at the height of the summer outbreak.

“Even with the recent increase in hospitalizations, we’re really nowhere close to where we were back in July and August with respect to hospitalizations,” Oldham said. “Still good news but something we’re watching a little bit more closely.”

Five of those cases required an ICU hospitalization, according to the county’s COVID-19 dashboard.

Hospitalizations tend to lag two to three weeks behind a spread in cases, he added, so officials expect to see more people hospitalized for the virus in the coming weeks. Placer hospitals still have available beds.

The county will remain in its current orange status until the ajudication process with the state comes to a close. The state will announce its decision Tuesday.