‘Certainly encouraging’: Slight decline in coronavirus patients at Sacramento hospitals

The number of people with coronavirus in hospitals or in intensive care beds in Sacramento County has been on a slight but steady decline over the last two weeks, according to new data released by the county for the first time Monday evening.

A downward trend in hospitalizations and ICU cases associated with COVID-19 is a hopeful sign, local and state officials say. One of the key ways of tracking the pandemic’s reach and impact, fewer people in hospitals or receiving intensive care will ultimately be a major factor to determine how — and when — to lift stay at home orders.

On April 2, the first day the new state data is available for, there were 71 people hospitalized at one of the county’s 10 hospitals who tested positive for the coronavirus. That same day, 24 people with the virus required an ICU bed. The next day, 77 were hospitalized and 28 were in intensive care.

As of last Friday, the latest data released by the county, there are 63 people confirmed with COVID-19 who are hospitalized, and 24 people staying in an ICU bed.

There are about 600 available hospital beds in Sacramento County for COVID-19 patients, Sacramento County public health director Dr. Peter Beilenson previously told The Sacramento Bee. That means the county has managed to keep a surge in cases at bay, for now.

“It is certainly encouraging and we’d like to see this trend continue downward well over two weeks,” Sacramento County public health officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye said in a statement.

Still, Kasirye and other public health officials in the region have been cautious about suggesting a specific end date for restrictions on movement.

Although local businesses have been devastated by the sudden dearth of customers and millions have filed for unemployment, public health experts warn that easing stay-at-home orders too early would lead to a belated surge in coronavirus cases.

“In the meantime, it is still critical that everyone continues to stay at home and social distance when out so that we can see this trend continue,” Kasirye said.

Pressure is mounting to reopen the economy. Protesters gathered outside the Capitol on Monday to protest the state’s lockdown orders. Neighborhood parks and beaches are reopening in San Diego and Santa Cruz. San Luis Obispo officials are allowing certain businesses to open back up. County and city officials across the state are urging California Gov. Gavin Newsom to relax restrictions.

But Newsom and other leaders are resisting, saying they want to take a methodical and science-based approach to a gradual reopening that would avoid triggering another, and perhaps worse, surge of cases.

Last week, Newsom detailed several factors that will help California officials determine when and how to gradually reopen the state.

One of the main determinants: Flattening and declining hospital rates over several weeks. And that has yet to be seen statewide, Newsom said during his Tuesday press conference, citing increases in the number of deaths, positives, hospitalizations and ICU cases the previous day.

“I caution those, including local elected officials, that practicing physical distancing has worked to keep those numbers relatively modest in terms of growth,” Newsom said. “But if we pull back too quickly, those numbers will go through the roof.”

While the number of COVID-19 patients in ICU beds has hovered just over 1,100 for the last two weeks statewide, the hospitalization rates have continued to increase.

In general, California has fared better than initial models used by state officials suggested. Infection and death rates statewide are falling towards the lower end of those projections.

But as long as cases continue to increase, “there’s no reason to expect anything but more rising” when lifting restrictions, Andrew Noymer, an associate professor of public health at the University of California, Irvine, previously told The Bee.

As of Tuesday, more than 1,200 people in California have died, including 60 who died Monday, from COVID-19, the disease caused by the virus, and nearly 31,000 have been infected, a figure that increased by five percent on Monday.

This story was originally published April 21, 2020 at 2:02 PM.