California on brink of 3 million infections, despite coronavirus surge heading to plateau
Even as coronavirus hospitalizations and infections appear to be reaching a plateau following an enormous surge, California is nearing in on another big number — 3 million COVID-19 cases since the start of the pandemic.
As of Saturday, the total number of infections across the state was 2.94 million and 33,392 people had been confirmed dead of COVID-19. With daily infection reports by the California Department of Public Health ranging in recent weeks between 40,000 and 50,000, the state is likely to officially top 3 million in the next few days.
The good news is that those daily infection reports are likely to start declining in magnitude. CDPH figures haven’t broken 50,000 daily infections for over a week, following a string of huge reporting days. On Dec. 15, 53,711 people were confirmed infected, the highest single-day tally so far. Then, on Jan. 1, 53,341 infections were reported, followed by 52,636 on Jan. 8. On Saturday, the most recent data point available, 42,229 new infections were reported.
Hospitalization rates statewide have been improving since early January. On Jan. 7, 21,855 Californians were hospitalized with confirmed cases of coronavirus, the state’s all-time high, while Saturday’s CDPH data indicates that 20,323 people are hospitalized.
Compared to mid-October, when less than 3,000 people were hospitalized with COVID-19, that’s a huge increase, but the recent change is evidence that the winter surge may be on the decline.
Patients in intensive care units have also begun to slowly drop. Currently, 4,725 people are in ICUs for viral treatment, down from 4,868 on Jan. 10. Despite that improving trend, available ICU beds are still low. The state reported 1,070 ICU beds open as of Saturday, the lowest figure on record since data started being collected on March 29.
Availability may start to bounce back as fewer people are checked into hospitals with COVID-19 in the coming days. The state’s test positivity rate is also improving. Over the past two weeks, the positivity rate was 12.5%, but in just the last week, it down to 11.3%.
The Greater Sacramento region on Tuesday was allowed to lift the stay-at-home orders which had closed down in-person dining altogether and limited many other economic sectors for weeks due to a more favorable projection of ICU capacity.
For the moment, only Greater Sacramento and Northern California are exempt from those strict guidelines. Greater Sacramento has an ICU capacity of 6.2%, while Northern California has 24% of its ICU beds open.
The situation is significantly more dire in central and southern California, however. Both the San Joaquin Valley region and the Southern California region have maxed out their ICU capacity, according to the CDPH. The Bay Area has a dismal 3.4% ICU capacity.
The state’s death rate has still yet to stabilize. In the past two weeks, 6,854 people have been reported dead of COVID-19. In just the last seven days, 3,600 people have been reported dead, which is up by 12.1% from the week before that. Based on the last week’s worth of CDPH data, approximately 514 Californians are dying of the virus every day.
Latest Sacramento-area COVID-19 data
The six counties that make up the bulk of the 13-county Greater Sacramento region — Sacramento, El Dorado, Placer, Sutter, Yolo and Yuba counties — have reported more than 123,000 combined positive cases and recorded more than 1,500 virus deaths as of Friday.
Sacramento County has confirmed 77,940 cases since the onset of the pandemic, and at least 1,080 of those residents have died of COVID-19. The county reported 938 new cases Friday following 782 on Thursday, with 18 fatalities confirmed each day.
By date of death occurrence, December marked by far Sacramento County’s deadliest month of the pandemic. County health officials have confirmed 353 deaths for the month — an average of more than 11 a day.
At least 90 county residents died between the Sunday before and Saturday after Christmas, making it the the county’s deadliest calendar week of the pandemic.
December’s total is still growing as death confirmations are made official, mostly from the end of the month, but it has already exceeded the previous worst month, August with 181 deaths, by nearly double.
Additionally, at least 47 county residents died of the virus during the first nine days January, the county said, with that figure still very preliminary.
Virus hospitalizations in Sacramento County have fluctuated some but have held relatively stable, while ICU cases continue to climb. The overall patient total fell from 494 Thursday to 469 on Friday, but the ICU total jumped from 114 to a record-high 124. However, the available ICU bed total also increased, 58 to 67. By Sunday, 444 people were hospitalized, 120 of whom are in ICUs, and there were 68 ICU beds available.
Placer County health officials have confirmed a total of 16,761 infections and 173 deaths, adding 229 cases and one new death Friday following 215 cases and two deaths Thursday. On Wednesday, Placer confirmed 10 fatalities.
Data show Placer’s hospitalized total declining from a peak of 216 near the end of 2020, while the ICU rate fluctuates. Placer’s own local dashboard on Friday showed 145 in hospitals, down two from the previous day, with the ICU total holding at 27. State data on Sunday showed 154 hospitalized and 28 in ICUs in Placer. CDPH data indicates there are 10 ICU beds open.
Yolo County has reported a total of 9,747 cases and 131 deaths, adding 151 cases Friday, 92 cases and no deaths Thursday following 60 cases and one new death Wednesday.
State data showed Yolo with 30 virus patients in hospital beds Wednesday, Thursday and Friday, but with the ICU patient total jumping from nine to 13. By Saturday, 28 patients were hospitalized, 12 of whom were in ICUs. The state reported 23 ICU beds available in Yolo County on Friday, but it dropped all the way down to two by Sunday. Yolo’s local dashboard in recent updates has shown lower available bed counts than the state; it reported none available Friday.
El Dorado County has reported 7,515 positive test results and 44 deaths, adding 121 new cases Friday along with three deaths, 68 cases and three deaths Thursday following 104 cases and one newly reported death Wednesday.
Following just four deaths from March through mid-November, at least 37 El Dorado residents died of COVID-19 between Nov. 25 and Jan. 3, county officials report.
State health officials reported a record-high 46 virus patients in El Dorado on Tuesday, but the figure dropped to 34 as of Friday’s update and was down to 32 by Sunday. The ICU total fell from 11 on Thursday to nine on Friday, with available beds recovering from five to six, according to CDPH. By Sunday, it was back up to 11. The county has three ICU beds available.
In Sutter County, at least 7,484 people have contracted the virus and 77 have died. Sutter on Friday added 45 new infections and one death. On Thursday it reported 61 new cases and one new death, similar numbers to the 63 cases and one death added in Wednesday’s update.
Sutter County reports 39 residents hospitalized with COVID-19, down from 42 on Wednesday, and down from a record-high 58 on Jan. 6. Ten people are currently in ICUs.
Neighboring Yuba County has reported 4,818 infections and 27 dead, adding 52 new cases and one death on Friday following a report of 53 new cases Thursday and 742 on Wednesday.
Yuba said Thursday it had 32 residents hospitalized with the virus, up four compared to Wednesday, and with the ICU total rising from seven to nine.
Not all patients are hospitalized in-county, but the only hospital serving the Yuba-Sutter bicounty region — Adventist-Rideout in Marysville — had 58 hospitalized virus patients as of Friday’s state data update, up five from Thursday, with the ICU total spiking from 15 to 18. The hospital has one available ICU bed, up from zero on Thursday.
