Will California backtrack on masks, reopenings as Delta variant sparks new COVID fears?

The show must go on. Unless the Delta variant gets in the way.

After more than 16 months of lockdown, Capital Stage plans to resume live performances in late August with a drama called “Hold These Truths.” Ticket holders will have to show proof that they’ve been vaccinated against COVID-19 or recently tested negative for the coronavirus. And they’ll have to wear masks.

Capital Stage officials assume those safeguards will be enough. But they also know it’s hard to predict the future with a pandemic that’s showing signs of surging again.

“This has been a moving target,” said Keith Riedell, the midtown Sacramento theater company’s general manager.

Noticeable increases in COVID-19 infections are prompting partial, localized reversals of California Gov. Gavin Newsom’s decision to lift practically all of his pandemic restrictions on June 15.

Yolo County on Wednesday urged residents to wear masks indoors again, saying 59 cases of the highly contagious Delta variant have shown up in the county. Sacramento County followed suit on Thursday. Los Angeles County issued a similar advisory in late June but on Thursday said masks would be mandatory beginning Saturday.

Meanwhile, countries such as France have instituted significant lockdown policies again. This week France declared that restaurants, cafes, bars, trains, concert halls and other venues will be off-limits to anyone who hasn’t been vaccinated or recently tested negative.

Will Newsom’s administration go that far, so soon after largely dismantling its elaborate set of rules governing nearly every aspect of life in California? Public health experts say any large-scale return of COVID restrictions would be tough to enforce in a pandemic-weary state.

It will be hard to “throw down a big public-health order one month after lifting it,” said Andrew Noymer, an infectious disease expert at UC Irvine. Newsom could direct Californians to wear masks again, but “I worry that people will disobey the order,” he said.

Despite the highly contagious nature of the Delta variant, “the vaccines we have still work against Delta,” Noymer said. It isn’t until a variant emerges that resists the vaccines that we’ll “need to go full-blown back to whatever,” he said.

Delta variant might hurt businesses, economy

On the other hand, continued bad news about the Delta variant could prompt many Californians to go back behind closed doors, without any prompting from the state.

Although death rates continue to fall, the state is recording new infections at a rate of 4.3 cases per 100,000 residents. That’s twice as many as a month ago. California’s “positivity rate” — the number of infections for every 100 tests — has risen to 3%, after falling well below 1% a month ago.

These trends could keep some people out of the shopping malls.

“How are individuals going to react after that initial burst of happiness and freedom? Are people going to retreat again?” said economist Jeff Michael of the University of the Pacific.

For the time being, Michael said the effect on the business climate might be negligible. A drop-off in foot traffic might not be that big of a deal in an economy where businesses are struggling with labor shortages and have been unable to keep up with the renewed demand for goods and services.

Yet if the pandemic continues to be a major public-health menace, the economy will suffer. The Delta variant’s potential impact on business “raises long-run questions about the ability to get back to normal,” Michael said.

To be sure, some businesses and other institutions, including the Crocker Art Museum, have continued to require masks. But many others have relaxed those requirements — posting signs saying vaccinated customers are free to shed their masks. And should Newsom decide to impose new masks mandates or more serious restrictions on economic activity, the governor is certain to get challenged in court.

For instance, a group of beauty salons and restaurants sued the state in January to try to knock down state COVID-19 restrictions that were in place at the time. They’re still pursuing the lawsuit, even though the restrictions have vanished, out of fear that the state would revive its orders, said Fred Jones, a lobbyist representing thousands of hair and beauty salons.

“We’re making sure this never happens to our industry again,” said Jones, who is general counsel at the Professional Beauty Federation of California. The suit is in federal court in Los Angeles.

Tribal casinos aren’t bound by the state’s pandemic mandates but are watching the situation closely. Cache Creek Casino Resort, in northern Yolo County, has kept attendance comparatively low to encourage social distancing, and recommends — but doesn’t insist — that unvaccinated customers wear masks.

“We’re not alone in hoping that there is no need to bring back the rigid COVID protocols of the past year-and-a-half. But if there is a need, we’ll be ready,” said Ben Deci, spokesman for Cache Creek’s owner, the Yocha Dehe Wintun Nation.

He added that ticket sales have been strong for upcoming shows, including the Beach Boys, at the casino’s new 1,375-seat theater. “Though we have no plans to reschedule any dates as of now, we will continue to carefully evaluate all options,” Deci said.

The courts have backed Gavin Newsom — mostly

To this point, the courts have largely upheld Newsom’s emergency powers to lock down vast swaths of society in the interests of public health. The one big exception is religion. In February the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Newsom’s restrictions on in-person church services, reasoning that the governor couldn’t open shopping malls while keeping houses of worship closed.

Meanwhile, the courts have long made it clear that businesses and other institutions can require customers to be vaccinated, “as long as it doesn’t violate civil rights,” said Lisa Ikemoto, a UC Davis law professor who specializes in healthcare law. That generally means the institutions have to make exceptions for medical disabilities or religious objections.

Just last fall, California courts rejected a lawsuit brought by several UC faculty and students who objected to the university’s flu-vaccine mandate.

The concept is being tested again. The UC and CSU systems announced in April they are instituting COVID vaccine mandates as in-person classes resume this fall.

While they initially said the mandates would take effect once the Food and Drug Administration gave full authorization for the vaccines — as opposed to the emergency use authorization now in place — the UC system isn’t waiting. UC spokeswoman Heather Harper said the requirement, which is scheduled to be finalized Thursday, will go right into effect.

“The consultation process with the UC community indicated strong support for moving forward with a COVID-19 vaccination requirement now,” she said in an email.

CSU spokesman Michael Uhlenkamp said, “We continue to monitor the situation, but our plan announced in April still holds true – CSU will look to implement a COVID-19 vaccination requirement contingent upon one or more of the vaccines receiving full FDA approval.”

Three Chico State students have sued to block the CSU mandate, saying the vaccines could harm them because they’ve already recovered from COVID-19. The Center for Disease Control and Prevention says most COVID-19 survivors should get vaccinated.

Will Delta variant affect California’s recall election?

With politics clearly in mind, Newsom held an exuberant budget-signing ceremony in Los Angeles on Tuesday, bragging that the new spending plan includes $600 in stimulus checks to everyone earning less than $75,000 a year.

“This is one hell of a budget signing,” Newsom said. “We are doing things we only dreamt of and we’re getting them done this year. ... I hope folks will take time to look at this budget, because we have you in mind.”

Labor leaders and others took the stage to denounce the biggest threat to Newsom’s political future — a recall vote set for Sept. 14.

Anger over Newsom’s COVID orders helped qualify the recall for the ballot. Would a new set of directives hurt the governor when the votes are cast?

Democratic strategist Garry South said he doubts it.

While it’s true that “his approval ratings have taken a hit from the pandemic,” South said the Democratic governor remains relatively popular. “He gets a higher job approval rating for his handling of the pandemic than he does overall.”

For his part, Newsom hasn’t seemed eager to institute new restrictions. When he was asked a month ago whether the emergence of variants would prompt him to reverse course on reopening the economy, he said: “The bottom line is that we’ll look at hospitalization rates, we’ll look at our preparedness as the primary consideration for making any subsequent determinations. At this moment, we’re confident on the basis of the vaccination rates we’ve seen, and if we continue to see them increase over the next few weeks, then we can turn the page on this pandemic.”

The subject came up again a week ago during a press conference in Richmond. He said his office continues to monitor the situation and is following CDC guidelines about masks. He also renewed his call to Californians to get vaccinated.

This story was originally published July 15, 2021 at 5:00 AM.