Has the delta surge peaked? Sacramento COVID activity ‘might be on a downturn’
Some key indicators of COVID-19 spread have been declining in the Sacramento region over the past few weeks, an encouraging sign that the worst of the current surge may have subsided, though transmission rates remain elevated compared to spring.
Sacramento peaked at about 46 daily cases per 100,000 residents the week ending Aug. 13, the county’s coronavirus data dashboard shows. That has since slimmed to 31 per 100,000 in less than a month.
The county’s test positivity rate, which soared from 2.8% at the start of July to 9.8% by mid-August as the highly infectious delta variant took hold, has steadily declined, reported this week at 6.8%.
“It does seem like we might be on a downturn, but it’s a little early, so we’re still cautiously optimistic,” county health officer Dr. Olivia Kasirye said during a call with reporters Thursday.
Kasirye noted that numbers appear to also be improving at the state level. California’s test positivity, which spiked to 7.1% during the current surge, dropped as low as 4.1% earlier this week before rebounding to 4.5%.
Similar declines are being reported in neighboring Placer, El Dorado and Yolo counties, which had respective positivity rates of 8.7%, 7.9% and 1.8%, according to California Department of Public Health figures updated Thursday. All are a few percentage points better than their peaks from August. Yolo’s current positivity is the lowest among the state’s 58 counties.
Hospitalizations have shown signs of plateauing or starting to trend down. After peaking Sept. 1 at 449 patients with confirmed COVID-19 in hospital beds, Sacramento County’s total has dropped to 382, according to CDPH data updated Thursday. The intensive care unit total has dipped from 114 to 99. Both tallies have fluctuated some, day-to-day.
Kasirye said Thursday that Sacramento County hospitals remain at or near capacity. Some have had to transfer patients to other hospitals within the county due to lack of available beds. So far, patients have not had to be transferred to hospitals in other counties, she said.
Placer County’s hospitalized tally fell from an all-pandemic high of 231 on Aug. 23 to 203 by Thursday’s update. However, Placer hospitals are still seeing high numbers of ICU patients — 50 or more each day since Aug. 26, state data show, after peaking at 32 during the winter surge.
State and local health officials throughout the health crisis have advised people against letting their guard down and to continue to follow protocols such as indoor masking.
With all major K-12 districts in the region now having returned to in-person learning for the 2021-22 academic year, concern has centered around children, especially those younger than 12 who are not yet eligible for vaccination.
Sacramento reaches 2,000 COVID deaths
The delta surge has brought another wave of deaths to the capital region.
Sacramento County has reported at least 182 virus fatalities for August, making it the third-deadliest calendar month of the pandemic, behind December (389) and January (325), county data show. It has edged past August 2020, which had 181 recorded COVID-19 deaths.
Sacramento’s official coronavirus death toll for the entire pandemic surpassed 2,000 on Thursday, reaching 2,003 with a daily update that added 13 newly confirmed deaths, most of them from last month.
Placer County has reported at least 21 virus deaths for August, its most since February. Placer’s cumulative death toll is now at 336.
Based on hospitalization trends and lags in reporting due to the time it takes to confirm COVID-19 fatalities, the local death toll will likely continue to increase at a fast clip through at least late September.
Improving vaccination rates likely helping
It’s not entirely clear what is producing the declining case rate in California’s capital region. Kasirye said it could be multiple factors.
One of them — the one health officials continue to stress as the most important long-term measure — might be improving vaccination rates, Kasirye said on Thursday’s call.
On June 15, when California dropped most pandemic restrictions including the mask mandate for the fully vaccinated, Sacramento County had about 704,000 of its residents fully vaccinated, or about 45% of its total population, according to CDPH data.
That has risen to more than 833,000 fully vaccinated as of Thursday, or 54% of the county. Sacramento also recently surpassed 60% with at least one dose.
“I’m sure that helps,” Kasirye said. “But we still have a ways to go. We can’t relax yet.”
Kasirye has said the county’s goal is to reach 70% full vaccination. With vaccines still only available to residents 12 and older, 63% of eligible county residents are fully vaccinated and 71% are at least partially vaccinated, state data show.
Reaching 70% full vaccination for the county’s overall population likely won’t be feasible until vaccines are authorized for younger children.
The latest county data show that, in late August, the daily case rate was about 14 per 100,000 among the fully vaccinated, compared to 58 per 100,000 among those who were not fully vaccinated.
Kasirye on Thursday did not have data available for recent hospitalizations by vaccination status.
Placer County, though, reported Wednesday that 93 of the 97 current, confirmed COVID-19 patients (96%) at its two hospitals that track vaccination status are not fully vaccinated.
While they are improving, vaccination rates across the four-county Sacramento region continue to trail the statewide average, though not by nearly the same margins as some of California’s more rural counties that are facing their worst surges of the 18-month pandemic.
About 58% of all Californians were fully vaccinated as of Thursday, according to CDPH. Yolo County leads the four-county area at 57%, followed by Placer at 55%, Sacramento at 54% and El Dorado at 51%.
