Who’s going to vote in the Newsom recall? + Prop. 22 decision debated + HRC backs Newsom

Good morning and welcome to the A.M. Alert!

WHO’S LIKELY TO VOTE IN RECALL?

Via Lara Korte...

A new study from UC San Diego found off-cycle elections, like the upcoming Newsom recall, tend to be dominated by conservative, wealthy, older white voters.

That’s not good news for Gov. Gavin Newsom, who is currently polling on a thin margin and working to close an enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans.

It’s important to note that Democratic leaders played a large role in determining the Sept. 14 election date. The thought was to schedule a recall sooner than later to avoid catastrophe from wildfires or COVID-19 that could throw Newsom off-course.

Those catastrophes are happening anyway, my colleague Kim Bojórquez reports.

The UC San Diego study, published in American Political Science Review, looked at all local elections held in California over an eight-year period and found that simply moving off-cycle, local elections to be held on the same day as statewide and national contests doubles voter turnout and leads to an electorate that is considerably more representative.

The study found that voters in California during off-cycle elections are 67% white on average, but that number drops to 57% during statewide or national elections.

By contrast, the share of voters who are Hispanic grows from 18% of the vote to 25%, while the Asian-American share of the vote increases from 8% to 10.3%

“What our results tell us is that the more unusual we make the timing of an election, the fewer people are going to turn out to vote and the more unrepresentative those votes are going to be,” lead author Zoltan Hajnal said. “With a recall election that is on an unexpected date, we are essentially making it more difficult for voters to participate. As a result, we might see lower turnout that is less representative of the California populace.”

WHAT DOES PROP. 22 RULING REPRESENT?

Via Jeong Park...

Both sides of the Prop. 22 debate are framing the ballot initiative and court battle as a fight over democracy, in light of Friday’s county court ruling that held the measure as unconstitutional.

The measure passed with 58% of the vote in 2020, which supporters of Prop. 22 called an “overwhelming majority.” Prop. 22 exempts drivers for companies like Uber, Lyft and DoorDash from the 2019 labor law known as Assembly Bill 5, which requires companies to give benefits to more workers.

“It’s clear that the special interests behind this frivolous challenge are attacking the overwhelming will of the voters and the decisive wishes of drivers who fought to remain independent,” said Jim Pyatt, a Modesto-based rideshare driver, in a statement from the Protect App-Based Drivers & Services Coalition which includes gig companies and community organizations.

But opponents of Prop. 22, who held a press conference Monday morning to celebrate the ruling, see the court as protecting democracy from companies that spent some $200 million pushing for the measure.

“Corporations alone should not dictate laws in our state,” said Bob Schoonover, president of SEIU California State Council who along with a group of rideshare drivers filed the lawsuit that led to the ruling. “SEIU will continue to stand alongside drivers waging this critical fight to protect democracy from the highest spender.”

Both sides are vowing to continue to make their case, likely all the way up to the California Supreme Court which will take at least several months, according to Scott Kronland, a lawyer representing SEIU and the rideshare drivers.

Even if Prop. 22 is found to be unconstitutional, other lawsuits are still in the courts as to whether drivers should be classified as employees, Kronland said. Still, he said he’s confident that the courts will ultimately rule in his favor on all of those issues.

HRC WEIGHS IN ON THE RECALL

The Human Rights Campaign, the nation’s largest LGBT civil rights organization, has jumped into California politics with a call for voters to reject Newsom’s recall.

“Governor Gavin Newsom has long been a staunch champion of LGBTQ+ equality, and he’s the most pro-LGBTQ+ governor in California history, having signed legislation to protect and advance the rights of transgender people, expand access to HIV prevention medication, and help California combat and rebound from the COVID-19 pandemic which has had a disproportionate impact on LGBTQ+ people,” HRC Vice President JoDee Winterhof said in a statement. “If Californians don’t vote no in the recall election by Sept. 14, the rights, protections, and fundamental equality of 1.6 million LGBTQ+ Californians could be in danger. This recall election is a dangerous and unnecessary attempt to grab power and roll back progress in California, and it’s up to every Californian to vote no.”

The HRC points to Newsom’s extensive history of pro-LGBTQ+ accomplishments, including his decision as mayor of San Francisco to issue thousands of marriage certificates to same-sex couples when federal law still prohibited such things.

Newsom has received a wave of national support recently, including from Sens. Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders and Cory Booker. Vice President Kamala Harris, Newsom’s contemporary in Bay Area politics, is expected to travel to California this week to campaign on his behalf.

QUOTE OF THE DAY

“I fully support and co-authored the Kimchi Day house resolution…. But you know what this means????Taco Tuesday Resolution in the works!”

- Assemblywoman Lorena Gonzalez, D-San Diego, via Twitter.

Best of the Bee:

• Assemblyman Kevin McCarty, who is fully vaccinated against COVID-19, tested positive for the virus the same day he attended a conference with a dozen other lawmakers, via Hannah Wiley.

• The California congressional district that would benefit most next year from President Joe Biden’s tax plan is represented by a Republican, David Valadao of Hanford, via David Lightman.

• Political experts say Gov. Gavin Newsom’s frequent criticism of Republican recall candidate Larry Elder indicates that the radio personality’s dominance in the polls actually helps the embattled governor, who now has a credibly threatening rival to campaign against, via Sophia Bollag.