East Coast election results could predict how California votes. What to watch for Tuesday
Is a Republican wave about to sweep the country and help elect lots of California GOP candidates?
Can Gavin Newsom top his vote totals in previous elections?
Who will show up to vote...and what difference does that make?
Some Election Day questions will have answers in California late Tuesday afternoon, as polls close in the East and Midwest and results pour in.
“If we consistently see Republican margins running five or six points or so ahead of Trump’s 2020 margins in the East, it stands to reason we’ll see some of that in the West too,” said Kyle Kondik, managing editor of Sabato’s Crystal Ball, which studies races throughout the country.
“Swings are never perfectly uniform,” he said Monday, “but if it’s a good Republican environment, we should see it relatively early.”
Republicans need a net gain of five House seats to win a majority. Inside Elections, a nonpartisan firm that analyzes congressional races, sees a GOP pickup of 13 to 30 seats..
Inside Elections both see California incumbents Reps. David Valadao, R-Hanford, and Josh Harder, D-Turlock, in races too close to call. Sabato’s group Monday changed their prediction for both races to “lean Republican.”
Republicans need a net gain of one seat to control the Senate. Inside Elections sees the outcome as too close to predict.
“Republicans are closing fast, and voters frustrated by a sputtering economy and urban crime are poised to send a message to President Joe Biden and the Democratic-controlled Congress,” the group’s analysts wrote.
Here’s what to look for Tuesday as the polls close elsewhere:
▪ Keep an eye on key eastern races. If a Republican or Democratic wave is about to become a national tsunami, Virginia congressional contests involving Reps. Elaine Luria, Jennifer Wexton and Abigail Spanberger, all Democrats, should indicate early trends.
Kondik also advises a look at Ohio, where three House races are being closely contested and Rep. Tim Ryan, D-Ohio, is mounting a spirited challenge to win what’s now a Republican-held Senate seat.
Same with Senate races in New Hampshire, where incumbent Democrat Maggie Hassan is facing Trump favorite Don Bolduc, and Pennsylvania, where Dr. Mehmet Oz and Lt. Gov. John Fetterman are in a deadlocked race.
Also worth noting: The governor’s contest in New York, where Republican Lee Zeldin is driving the crime issue as he tries to unseat Gov. Kathy Hochul and become the state’s first GOP governor in 16 years.
▪ Early California results. Democrats look to deep blue California as a buffer against a big GOP night.There are two ways to see if a wave has hit here.
One is if the GOP not only wins but rolls up big majorities in races with no incumbents. That’s important in the Central Valley where Democrat Adam Gray and Republican John Duarte are competing, and for the 3d District seat where Assemblyman Kevin Kiley, a Republican, is running against physician Kermit Jones, a Democrat.
Next, a trend could be in the works if one party wins races involving incumbents who were not seen as unusually vulnerable by analysts, including Reps. Michele Steel, R-Seal Beach; Mike Garcia, R-Santa Clarita, Mike Levin, D-San Juan Capistrano and Katie Porter, D-Irvine.
The state’s current congressional delegation, which shrinks by one next year, now has 42 Democrats and 11 Republicans.
▪ The Newsom presidential watch. The governor says he doesn’t want to run for president anytime soon, but at least seems to be thinking about raising his national stature.
The conventional political wisdom is that to shine nationally, you have to show broad support at home. Prospective presidents like to run up big margins in their most recent state elections. George W. Bush, for instance, won his first term as governor of Texas in 1994 with 53% of the vote, and a second term in 1998 with 70%. He declared his presidential candidacy eight months later.
The Newsom number to watch is 61.9%. That’s what he got in both the 2018 gubernatorial election and the attempted recall last year.
▪ What voters want. Results of California’s ballot propositions and, more significantly, the night’s exit polls will tell state lawmakers what voters value most. First exits are likely to be available on network web sites as early as 9 p.m.
Pre-election polls were clear: People want help with the economy and crime.
If those issues are the overwhelming choices election night, Newsom and the legislature will have a clear mandate. A less definitive list would leave them without a clear signal from voters.
▪ Who’s showing up? It’s said people vote with their feet, and if those feet stay home, it suggests policymakers will have a hard time claiming a mandate for hard-to-pass initiatives. Northern California election officials are expecting a strong turnout.
If a Republican wave appears to be developing back east, will that discourage Democrats from turning out later in the day? Will that help boost the Republican congressional candidates?
▪ The long wait begins. We may not know a lot of outcomes for days or weeks.Even months.
Recent midterm waves were obvious early. In 2018, for instance, when Democrats gained 40 House seats and flipped control of the chamber, it was apparent early. By 11:45 p.m. Eastern time, President Donald Trump had called Democratic leader Nancy Pelosi to congratulate her.
But that was before the huge growth in voting by mail, which has slowed the count in some states. Add Trump and his allies, who began questioning the integrity of the counting process, as well as election deniers sympathetic to the GOP who have gained influence.
Nationally, more than 100 lawsuits have already been filed questioning voting rules.
In Nye County, Nevada, in a state where Democrats could lose a Senate seat they now hold, officials want to hand count ballots. New Hampshire is anticipating a surge of write-in ballots, which take longer to count.
“The final midterm outcome will likely be delayed by the normal counting of ballots and legal challenges,” said Inside Elections.
This story was originally published November 7, 2022 at 12:26 PM.
.jpg)