4 key takeaways from The Bee’s Q&A on the California governor’s race
With just over a month until California’s primary election, The Sacramento Bee hosted a live webinar on Monday to answer questions about the tumultuous race for governor and our coverage of the contest.
The Zoom event featured political reporters Ben Paviour and Lia Russell in a discussion, moderated by Assistant Managing Editor for Politics & Investigations Grace Wyler, about the remaining candidates shaping the race.
Swalwell’s out. How has the race for California governor shaken up since then?
“Nobody has really emerged as a clear frontrunner,” Russell said, noting how unusual the competitive race has been. After leading Democratic candidate Eric Swalwell bowed out of the governor’s race – and resigned from Congress – following sexual assault allegations, the candidates for governor now include six Democrats and two Republicans.
For a time, Swalwell seemed likely to break through the crowded field of contenders, having consolidated support from powerful Democrats like Sen. Adam Schiff, organized labor groups and a strong base of fundraisers.
“Now that has completely fractured since he has dropped out and resigned from office,” Russell said. “Candidates who are left (in the race) are scrambling to pick up endorsements from groups that have since unendorsed Swalwell.”
While Swalwell never received an endorsement from former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, she brought him on as a manager during President Donald Trump’s impeachment trial, and he worked closely with her peers and Gov. Gavin Newsom behind the scenes.
California uses a top-two primary system, or a jungle primary, which means the top two vote-getters advance to the general election, regardless of their party. What does this mean for Democrats?
What Democrats need is for Republicans to pick a candidate, Paviour said. In a state as blue as California, the question on who remains unanswered.
“Polling has consistently shown two Republicans, Steve Hilton, a British former Fox News host, and Riverside County Sheriff Chad Bianco, at the top of the polls, albeit by 1 to 3%,” Paviour said.
Despite Trump’s endorsement of Hilton, “we haven’t seen yet in polling that that’s made a huge difference among who Republicans for,” Paviour added. Meanwhile, Bianco received more votes at the Republican Party convention earlier this month.
The easiest way for Republicans to win in California’s governor’s race at this point would be for two GOP candidates to advance to the general election – though that possibility remains unlikely, Paviour said.
What should we expect in the next few weeks until the June 2 primary election?
While the usual 24-hour political news cycle is unpredictable, “no one predicted the rise of the ‘Becerramentum,” Russell said, noting a surge in support for former Attorney General Xavier Becerra since Swalwell’s exit. The most popular theory for his current success includes Swalwell’s digital advertising team switching to work under Becerra. “We’re seeing a proliferation of Becerra ads and memes online ... I think that’s pushing him to the top of a lot of people’s minds,” Russell said.
However, it is not certain how sustainable Becerra’s strategy is given his latest campaign financial disclosures. “He raised a million dollars, but spent 4 million and only has about $500,000 cash on hand, it’s not clear to me that this is going to last for long,” Russell said.
Becerra is now considered a top Democratic contender alongside Tom Steyer and Katie Porter based on recent polling.
“We’re at that point in the primary now where these candidates are going to be looking into each other’s pasts, trying to find the weak points,” Paviour said. “You see that now with Tom Steyer trying to dig into Becerra, and we’ll probably continue to see that.”
How difficult is it for reporters to broaden their coverage of the race beyond polls and missteps? The Bee’s approach to reporting on the CA governor race
Paviour said he wants to give readers a sense of who the candidates are beyond the immediate news cycle with well-rounded coverage through candidate profiles, bringing pieces of their pasts to light and covering their policies. In a race with no clear frontrunner, reporting on polls and other daily developments is a convenient way to give voters a sense of where things might be headed. “It’s all about trying to create a mix of different types of stories that we do,” Paviour said.
