The best predictions you will ever get on the recall election of Gov. Gavin Newsom. Honest

With Recall Mania underway (outside of California), I’m often asked by readers (outside of California) who I think has the best chance to win the recall election.

Let me start with an anecdote from the 2003 California recall.

My high school friend Dan Buettner, the best-selling author of the “Blue Zones” books, used to date supermodel Cheryl Tiegs — who, like Dan and I, is from Minnesota. People (men) my age can probably imagine themselves with Cheryl Tiegs and wonder, “How did my friend Danny get Cheryl Tiegs?”

He’s a smart dude. Anyway, Cheryl and I started talking about the recall election. She was a very good friend of Arnold Schwarzenegger’s and I was rather dismissive of his chances at winning.

“Cheryl, no one is going to vote for some reality show celebrity with dyed hair for an important job like California governor,” I said. “This country is too sophisticated for that sort of thing. It’s going to be (former California Lt. Gov.) Cruz Bustamante.”

Cheryl disagreed, and the voters have demonstrated that I’m consistently wrong about this stuff. Always.

Friends (outside of California) consistently ask me about Caitlyn Jenner, a reality show celebrity with dyed hair. Now, I need to call Cheryl Tiegs for her take on this, but I’m doubtful that Gov. Jenner will happen.

Gov. Gavin Newsom — the closest thing to a dyed-hair reality show candidate without actually being one (California government isn’t a reality show, but it comes close) — will defeat the recall. Ask Cheryl Tiegs.

John Cox once ran for Cook County Recorder of Deeds in Chicago and lost by nearly 20 percentage points. That was in 2004. In 2018, he was the GOP nominee for governor. Newsom beat Cox so badly it was the biggest California landslide since Earl Warren in 1950.

Now Cox is running again in the recall. Or is he working as a bear trainer now? Either way, he has no chance here.

Former San Diego Mayor Kevin Faulconer could have easily been elected in California, even as a Republican about 30 years ago. That, however, was ruined by his predecessor, San Diego Mayor Pete Wilson, a former governor and U.S. Senator. Wilson decided that villainizing Latino voters was a smart play in 1994 with Proposition 187, and the party has imploded in California ever since. Faulconer has the bland country club persona that Republicans used to love circa George H.W. Bush, the last GOP presidential candidate to win California. Hmm. Faulconer has no chance.

Former Rep. Doug Ose is a fascinating and somewhat tragic figure in GOP politics. Once viewed as a moderate, sensible person (one of Sacramento’s members of Congress), he’s devolved into a full-blown Trumphead. At the beginning of the Trump Administration, Ose was apparently angling for a cabinet position. He wasn’t hopelessly corrupt, so he didn’t get it. Ose has no chance.

Former Acting National Intelligence Director Richard Grenell is another once-promising foreign policy whiz in the Pre-Trump era. These days, Grenell has morphed into a screeching Fox News quote machine and grumpy Twitter spout. Grenell was also Ambassador to Germany, and I’ve started to wonder which era of Germany he’s interested in. No chance, either.

Former Supermodel Cheryl Tiegs, however, is always correct on California political predictions. She’s a great person, and a really nice woman from Minnesota.

I really think Tiegs has got a great chance here. Trust me. I’m always right about these things. Ask Cheryl.

CLARIFICATION: A previous version of this column included a joking reference to former Rep. Doug Ose.

The comment was meant to criticize the corruption of the Trump administration and in no way was meant as a comment about Ose.

This story was originally published May 28, 2021 at 5:00 AM.