California nears ‘light at the end of the tunnel’ but COVID still poses a deadly threat

There is reason to be cautiously optimistic that life will soon return to normal after a year of COVID-19. Many public officials are striking a hopeful tone. “Light at the end of the tunnel” is a favorite refrain.

“That light is the vaccination,” said Dr. Olivia Kasirye, Sacramento County’s public health officer.

But spiking COVID infections in other countries, along with persistent warnings from public health officials, suggest the possibility of more trouble ahead.

The U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the Biden administration have warned against hasty reopenings. Several states, including Texas, Mississippi and Wyoming, ignored them by removing all restrictions and lifting mask mandates. In many parts of California, including Sacramento, schools, indoor dining rooms, movie theaters and gyms are reopening.

“I am really worried about reports that more states are rolling back the exact public health measures we have recommended to protect people from COVID-19,” CDC Director Rochelle Walensky said earlier this month. “I understand the temptation to do this ... but we cannot be resigned to 70,000 cases a day, 2,000 daily deaths.”

After multiple waves of COVID, including a winter surge where daily case rates reached 300,000, we learned the hard way that our collective actions are the biggest impediment to defeating COVID-19. More than 536,000 Americans have died from this virus, with nearly 57,000 in California alone.

One in three people are mourning in this country. Yet, once again, spring breakers are filling U.S. beaches and millions of people are passing through airports each day.

Dr. Aydin Nazmi, an epidemiologist and Cal Poly professor, warned of a “floodgate effect” in which people completely drop their guard because they think it’s safe. Public health experts view immunity as a dimmer switch, he said, “but at the population level, if there’s an indication society is ready to open up, it’s hard to do that slowly.”

“It’s really difficult to temper that enthusiasm and excitement to get back to doing things semi-normally,” Nazmi said. “If we do by definition open up in the presence of the pandemic, then we have an increased risk. The data shows that when we do open up, there’s usually a spike.”

We are unquestionably gaining ground on the coronavirus one year after this deadly plague first forced us to shelter at home and altered our daily lives. As of this week, over 71.1 million Americans have received at least one vaccine dose. Experts say that about 40% of residents have some form of COVID protection, whether it’s from the vaccine or natural immunity after catching the virus.

Yet we cannot escape the reality that the coronavirus remains a present and dangerous threat with new variants we are still learning about. What we do know is that they are more transmissible. Studies show they could cause another surge with so many people still unvaccinated. As a result, even as bars and restaurants reopen, Gov. Gavin Newsom and health officials now recommend wearing two masks.

“I think everyone is very aware of how exhausted people are about the lockdowns,” Kasirye said. “So there’s that fine balance that we’ve all had to play, especially in public health, with balancing what we need to do — as well as being able to provide that ability for people to move around more freely, especially businesses that have been so (severely) impacted.”

Is California’s fast reopening another mistake? Two previous reopenings — which ignored warnings from some public health experts — resulted in deadly surges. Even as vaccinations get underway, a third wave of infections is hitting other countries. The new COVID variants are causing infections rates to spike across Europe, with Germany and Italy reimposing some restrictions.

Experts urge us to remain patient and vigilant as the vaccine roll-out expands, yet the rush to reopen is on. Some Sacramento restaurants have been serving customers indoors for weeks despite public health rules.

Hopefully, Newsom’s third attempt to reopen the state will work out, but his track record hardly inspires confidence. The wisest course for Californians is to remain cautious and view the virus as a serious threat until more of the population gets the vaccine.

All of us are ready for this pandemic to end. We have put the darkest days behind us. If we slip into a false sense of security too soon, however, infections could surge and more people could die.

What a shame it would be to find ourselves moving backward, away from the “light at the end of the tunnel.”

This story was originally published March 17, 2021 at 5:00 AM.