Can the Kings make the playoffs? While not out, here’s why the odds are against them
Since around the beginning of the calendar year, talk about the Kings seemed to shift from player development to improved play and the possibility of making the NBA playoffs.
However, the team has cooled since the All-Star break, and that postseason possibility suffered another blow with Monday’s road loss to the Washington Wizards.
“This one hurts,” Kings coach Dave Joerger said afterward.
The loss dropped Sacramento (33-33) to 3-6 since the NBA’s midseason event. In each of those games, the Kings have either had a fourth-quarter lead or been within five points in the period.
Slow starts and the inability to win close games have contributed to decreased chances at ending the league’s longest current postseason hiatus.
Forward Harrison Barnes is the newest King in the starting rotation, but he wants to use his past playoff experience to help the team end its drought.
“As a leader, I have to be better at making sure that we are prepared mentally to be ready to go,” said Barnes, who has played in 64 postseason games and has a championship ring. “We have to understand how tight this playoff race is.”
Sacramento entered Wednesday four games behind the Utah Jazz for the eighth and final spot in the Western Conference playoff race. The Kings are 4 1/2 behind the Los Angeles Clippers and five behind the San Antonio Spurs.
According to playoff probabilities on Basketball Reference, the Kings have just a 1.5 percent chance to make the top eight. The teams above them have much higher odds: the Jazz are at 99.8 percent, the Clippers 99.6 and the Spurs 99.1.
The remaining schedule could have a lot to do with the unfavorable odds.
Of the Kings and the three teams above them, Sacramento has the most games against teams with winning records: eight of their remaining 16. Of those eight, six are on the road, including the upcoming back-to-back with the Boston Celtics and Philadelphia 76ers on Thursday and Friday.
Utah (37-29) also has 16 games left, only three are against winning clubs, including two at home.
The Kings won’t play the Clippers again after going 0-4 against them, but they do have road games against the Spurs on March 31 and the Jazz on April 5.
The Kings are off until Thursday. The Jazz have a back-to-back starting Wednesday at the Phoenix Suns before hosting the Minnesota Timberwolves. The Spurs (39-29) and Clippers (39-30) are off until Friday.
In terms of tiebreakers, the Kings have the edge on the Spurs, even if they lose the final matchup. Barring a collapse, the Jazz should edge Sacramento on record against conference opponents.
In short, the Kings need to win while hoping the others fall back.
“We know what’s at stake. We just need to keep grinding and winning games,” Kings guard Buddy Hield said after Saturday’s win over the New York Knicks. “It should be a fun race coming down to the end.”
This story was originally published March 12, 2019 at 3:23 PM.