Kings mailbag: Latest on Bagley, Holmes and meddling owners as NBA trade deadline nears
Kings Land is buzzing with anticipation and palace intrigue as general manager Monte McNair weighs his options in these final hours leading up to Thursday’s 12 p.m. NBA trade deadline.
McNair has quietly worked behind the scenes for months to explore trade possibilities involving several players, laying the groundwork for deals that may or may not come to fruition before the deadline.
Harrison Barnes and Richaun Holmes are the team’s hottest commodities. Nemanja Bjelica has already packed his bags. Buddy Hield, Marvin Bagley III, Cory Joseph and Hassan Whiteside could all be included in deals if McNair is presented with the right opportunity before the clock strikes noon.
McNair will make big and little decisions that influence the future of the franchise as the organization strives to better manage assets and bring winning basketball back to Sacramento. The Kings (18-25) are 13th in the Western Conference going into Wednesday’s game against the Atlanta Hawks (22-21).
The Kings are five games behind the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 8 seed and 3 ½ games out of the final play-in spot with 31 games remaining. The Kings have won three of their last four games, but barring a big turnaround, they still appear to be careening toward their 15th consecutive losing season. So now what?
Will McNair find a way to improve the team’s talent and depth? Will Kings owner Vivek Ranadivé meddle in basketball decisions? Should Bagley be traded now given his injury history and his father’s social media antics or can he still be considered one of the franchise’s young cornerstone players?
You have questions and we have answers in this week’s Kings mailbag.
Note: Some questions have been edited for length or clarity.
Trade talks
@Semirimes asks: Is there a trade or some kind of roster shakeup coming?
The Kings already made a small move to acquire Mfiondu Kabengele from the Los Angeles Clippers on Monday night and we’ll probably see at least one more move before the deadline.
The most likely player to be traded is Bjelica. The 32-year-old power forward enjoyed career years as a starter the past two seasons, but he hasn’t been happy since his role was reduced as part of the organization’s plan to prioritize Bagley’s development. A league source recently told The Sacramento Bee the timing of a Bjelica trade was “trending toward deadline day,” but a deal was still expected.
The Kings have also looked at possibilities involving Hield and Bagley, but the return has not been to their liking. We’ll see if that changes in the next 24 hours or so.
Prior to the season, an Eastern Conference executive told The Bee the Kings could probably get a promising young player and draft picks for Hield, one of the game’s most prolific 3-point shooters. A Western Conference executive strongly disagreed, saying Hield might be impossible to move in the first year of a four-year, $86 million contract with $20 million more in incentives. Hield’s trade value was not bolstered by his 32.5% 3-point shooting in February, but he has returned to form in recent weeks, shooting 43.7% in March.
Bagley remains out with a fractured fourth metacarpal in his left hand, but his name came up in multiple reports Monday. Sources told Chris Haynes of Yahoo Sports the Detroit Pistons turned down a proposal that would have sent Bagley to Detroit in exchange for Saddiq Bey, a promising rookie small forward from Villanova. The Athletic’s Sam Amick reported the Kings had also offered Bagley to the Atlanta Hawks in talks around John Collins, a talented 23-year-old power forward who will be a restricted free agent this summer. The Kings couldn’t gain traction in those talks, but maybe another opportunity will arise.
The Kings appear to be perfectly content with keeping Barnes as part of the team’s core unless they are blown away by a big offer. They love Holmes, too, but his situation could be a little more complicated.
Pay Richaun Holmes or trade him?
@nvrtelmetheodds asks: I hope Richaun Holmes stays in Sacramento, but how much money will it take to keep him and will the Kings be able to afford it?
Holmes is in line for a much bigger payday as a restricted free agent this summer after putting together two career years with the Kings.
Holmes is averaging career highs of 13.9 points, 8.8 rebounds, 1.8 assists and 1.6 blocks. He is 10th among centers in scoring, 13th in rebounding and tied for seventh in blocked shots. He is first among centers in field-goal percentage (.650), ninth in free-throw percentage (.813), ninth in assists and 13th in steals. In terms of advanced stats, Holmes is 11th in value added and tied for 10th in estimated wins added.
For purposes of comparison, the Los Angeles Lakers gave Montrezl Harrell a two-year, $19 million deal this season. Meanwhile, Myles Turner is in the second year of a four-year, $80 million deal with the Indiana Pacers and Brooklyn Nets center Jarrett Allen is reportedly expecting $90 million as a restricted free agent this summer. Holmes won’t command anything in the range of $20 million per year, but anything north of $10 million could be a problem for the Kings if they can’t shed salary in a deal involving Hield, Barnes or Bagley.
The salary cap is expected to be $112.4 million in 2020-21. Sacramento already has $105.6 million in cap allocations with 10 players under contract for next season, including $91.9 million in guaranteed salary. The Kings can free up about $13.7 million by parting ways with Justin James ($1.78 million), DaQuan Jeffries ($1.7 million) and Joseph, whose $12.6 million salary is only guaranteed for $2.4 million.
The Kings could go over the cap to re-sign Holmes using his Early Bird rights, but under that scenario they could offer no more than 175% of his 2020-21 salary without using cap space. With 8% annual raises, Sacramento could offer Holmes a little over $39 million on a four-year deal. Assistant general manager Ken Catanella is known for his cap wizardry, but the path to keeping Holmes could be very narrow if the Kings can’t find a way to free up additional money.
Multiple teams have reportedly shown interest in Holmes, including the Charlotte Hornets, Toronto Raptors and Dallas Mavericks. The Kings have resisted those overtures to this point, but their thinking could be contingent on what happens with Hield, Barnes and Bagley.
Holmes professed his love for Sacramento in response to a question from The Bee last week, but he talked about what he’s looking for in free agency in a February episode of the HoopsHype podcast.
“I just want to be in the position to take care of my family and put them in the best position,” he said. “That means a lot to me as well as being in a position to compete. I want to win championships at some point in my career.”
Meddling owner
@RJamesW42 asks: How much is Vivek Ranadivé meddling in basketball decisions?
This has been a hot topic lately as McNair approaches his first NBA trade deadline as Sacramento’s head of basketball operations. This organization needs a clear sense of direction after firing three general managers and five head coaches while posting a record of 237-370 (.390) in eight seasons since Ranadivé purchased the team in 2013.
Ranadivé’s tendency to involve himself in basketball decisions has been highly scrutinized over the years, but team sources tell The Bee McNair will have the final say in personnel decisions. Ownership will be consulted, but McNair will have final decision-making power regarding roster decisions and related basketball moves, sources said.
Eerie similarities
@ScottJHulsey asks: Is Marvin Bagley III the next Jabari Parker — a talented, No. 2 draft pick from Duke who can’t stay healthy?
Parker came out of Duke as the No. 2 pick in the 2014 NBA Draft. Bagley came out of Duke as the No. 2 pick in the 2018 draft. Parker was limited to 152 games over his first three seasons due to injuries. Bagley has only appeared in 112 games.
There are obviously some eerie similarities, but there are also some key differences. Parker tore his left ACL as a rookie in 2014 and tore it again in 2017. Bagley’s injuries have been problematic, but they haven’t been nearly as severe. He sprained a knee, broke his thumb, sprained a foot and now has a broken hand.
Bagley’s injuries have undoubtedly slowed his development, but barring long-term foot problems, they do not seem to be the kind of injuries that can threaten a player’s career like an ACL tear.
This story was originally published March 24, 2021 at 4:00 AM.
