Ready for change? Kings hope to overcome NBA draft mishaps and build a playoff team
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Ready for change? Kings hope to overcome NBA draft mishaps and build a playoff team
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Video: Kings insider tells you what you should know for the NBA Draft
Jerry West knows how instrumental the NBA draft can be to a team’s success. Jerry Reynolds knows how much it can hurt.
West was one of the best general managers in NBA history, winning eight championships as an executive with the Los Angeles Lakers and Golden State Warriors. Reynolds spent his entire 35-year NBA career as a coach, executive and broadcaster with the Kings, who have a 15-year playoff drought and a long history of draft mishaps.
“If there was a science to it then it would be easy, but it’s not,” West said.
Sacramento holds the No. 9 pick in this year’s draft, which will be held Thursday at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. The Kings hope to add another impact player after drafting De’Aaron Fox at No. 5 in 2017 and Tyrese Haliburton at No. 12 in 2020.
Each year, the draft gives teams an opportunity to add emerging young talent to their rosters. The worst teams are awarded the best picks, but they don’t always come away with the best players. Strong organizations with good scouts and smart executives can uncover hidden gems while lesser teams strike out on draft busts who can set a franchise back several years. Small-market teams like Sacramento, which has traditionally struggled to attract top free agents, have to strike gold in the draft to become championship contenders.
“There are three ways to build a team: the draft, trades and free agency,” said Reynolds, who spent four seasons as head coach of the Kings and five seasons as general manager. “I think they’re all about equal, but for a small-market team, the draft is maybe slightly more important than it is for the big-market teams.”
West, who constructed the Showtime Lakers dynasty in the 1980s, explained that the acquisition of talent and the cost-control benefit of getting good young players on rookie-scale contracts are both vital to a team’s success.
“The lifeblood of any NBA team is the draft and the young players you bring in,” said West, who now serves as an adviser to Los Angeles Clippers owner Steve Ballmer. “You just hope you can find a prospect that will be around for a long time because one of the things about this league is that you have to manage your salary cap issues. If you can get a young prospect, you know exactly what he’s going to cost you for a number of years, and you have control of him in the sense that you have a chance to work with him to make sure you have a finished product who will really be tremendously beneficial to the team going forward.”
Kings draft history
A recent report from Toward Data Science writer Brayden Gerrard asserted the Kings were the second-worst drafting team over the past 12 years behind the Cleveland Cavaliers. The data-driven analysis showed a strong correlation between winning and draft success. Teams with the best draft records included the Toronto Raptors, Denver Nuggets, Lakers, Milwaukee Bucks and San Antonio Spurs, a small-market team that won five NBA championships while making a record-tying 22 consecutive playoff appearances from 1998-2019.
“Some small-market teams have been very successful because they’ve done a good job of drafting well,” West said. “Certain small-market teams seem to be able to keep their players intact for a number of years and there have been some great successes based on the fact that they have great management and they seem to know what they’re looking for in the draft.”
Then there are teams like the Kings.
In 2011, Sacramento selected Jimmer Fredette at No. 10, passing on future All-Stars Klay Thompson, Kawhi Leonard, Nikola Vucevic, Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler. Fredette averaged 7.0 points over three seasons with the Kings and appeared in only 241 NBA games.
The Kings took Thomas Robinson with the No. 5 pick in 2012, leaving six-time All-Star Damian Lillard on the board for the Portland Trail Blazers at No. 6. Robinson played just 51 games for the Kings and lasted only five seasons in the NBA, averaging 4.9 points in 313 games.
In 2013, the Kings picked Ben McLemore at No. 7 when they could have taken CJ McCollum, Steven Adams, Giannis Antetokounmpo or Rudy Gobert. In 2014, they selected Nik Stauskas at No. 8 over the likes of Zach LaVine, T.J. Warren, Jusuf Nurkic and newly crowned MVP Nikola Jokic, who wasn’t drafted until the second round.
Kings fans thought their luck had changed when they moved up in the lottery to get the No. 2 pick in 2018, the best draft position they’ve had since selecting Pervis Ellison with the No. 1 pick in 1989. Sacramento crackled with excitement over the thought of drafting Slovenian teen sensation Luka Doncic, but former general manager Vlade Divac passed on Doncic to pick Marvin Bagley III, who ranked last among 720 draft picks analyzed in the Towards Data Science study.
“When you’re picking in the lottery, you can’t pick guys who don’t contribute,” Reynolds said. “They don’t have to be home runs, but they better be doubles. Haliburton was a solid triple, but you can’t swing and miss like a Thomas Robinson or Nik Stauskas, guys who had no value and are simply no longer in the league, or others who have very little value, whether it’s Ben McLemore, Willie Cauley-Stein or Jimmer Fredette. That’s what you can’t have. You need the Foxes and Haliburtons and those kinds of guys.”
Monte magic
Gary Gerould, who is entering his 37th season as the radio voice of the Kings, has witnessed every misstep since the team relocated to Sacramento in 1985. In addition to bad draft decisions, the Kings have had 10 coaches since Rick Adelman was fired in 2006 and three general managers since Geoff Petrie was fired in 2013.
That job now belongs to Monte McNair, who was hired in September to replace Divac. Gerould expressed faith and confidence in McNair, who is beginning his second season after being hired to replace Divac in September.
“The fact that there have been so many changes over the last decade-plus in terms of coaches, coaching staffs and, to some extent, the decision makers, it’s hard to establish a track record,” Gerould said. “There have been some really botched decisions over the years and it’s hard to recover, but it looks like you struck some gold with Fox and Haliburton, and now you want another piece.”
Gerould, 81, hopes to see the Kings get back to the playoffs for the first time since 2006.
“I’m not getting any younger,” Gerould said. “I want to see this team have more than some semblance of success. I want them to be a power to be reckoned with. We’re a long way from that, but before my lifetime ends, I’d sure like to see things get turned around.”
Gerould and Reynolds both pointed to the selection of Haliburton as a good indication that McNair and his staff know how to identify talent.
“Certainly, he’s 1 for 1,” Reynolds said. “He made a terrific pick in his first draft. Now, we need him to work his magic again.”
Some of the prospects who have been linked to the Kings include Arkansas guard Moses Moody, Michigan forward Franz Wagner, Duke forward Jalen Johnson, Gonzaga forward Corey Kispert, Turkish center Alperen Sengun and Texas big man Kai Jones. Whether the Kings make their selection at No. 9 or trade the pick, Gerould hopes McNair can acquire another player who will help the current core bring winning basketball back to Sacramento.
“Who knows what Monte and his staff are thinking going into this draft,” Gerould said. “I’ve always kind of been of the belief that the people who make the decisions know much more than any of us on the periphery about the talent that’s available, what’s not available, what may work and what may not work. Maybe it’s just blind faith on my part, but you put your trust in the people who make the decisions and then you live with it.”
