NFL draft preview: Who will the 49ers take? Here’s what covering the choice is like
I decided to do something different.
Instead of writing a story to explain why I believe the 49ers will tap Mac Jones on Thursday with the No. 3 pick in the NFL draft, I’d rather pull back the curtain and write about the odd life of an NFL reporter trying to cover all the bases leading up to a draft that will never be forgotten. I’ve been stuck inside for a while given that worldwide pandemic thing and have been swimming in my head since the March 26 trade.
This is a pivotal moment for the 49ers. Unquestionably the most important moment for coach Kyle Shanahan and general manager John Lynch as they try to navigate their immediate futures, which unquestionably hinge on getting the No. 3 pick right. And writing about it has been challenging given the strong opinions people have. The decision could lead to San Francisco’s next great dynasty or the unemployment line for the coach and GM. I don’t think that’s an overstatement.
A disclaimer: I’m not a “football guy.” My parents didn’t let me play growing up because I have one kidney. One was removed when I was an infant and I have a gnarly scar (I was a failed junior college baseball player, instead). But I am a passionate NFL observer who has the unbelievable privilege to do it for money.
The draft has always been one of the most fascinating parts of covering football and I’d like to think I have a pretty good understanding of what leads to success and what fails. I’ve covered the 49ers on the ground since 2013 and have seen the entire spectrum of good teams and bad teams, good drafts and bad drafts, good coaches and bad coaches.
And to real “football guys” reading this: Yes, you know more about prospects than I ever will. But the NFL has generally been bad at evaluating quarterbacks for years. Most quarterbacks drafted in the first round stink. The data proves it and so does the marketplace (we’ll get to that). So smirk at one journalist’s opinion while understanding you’re not more likely to be right about these quarterbacks than I am.
49ers passed on Mahomes, Watson
Which leads to Shanahan. He’s a brilliant X’s and O’s mind who hasn’t gotten his quarterback situation right to this point. Yes, he almost won a Super Bowl 15 nearly months ago, but Jimmy Garoppolo’s limitations played a large role in losing that game and his injuries led to Shanahan investing three first-round picks and a third-round pick in his replacement. Those are the facts.
To assume Shanahan’s decision will be the correct one just because he’s the guy in charge is ignoring the evidence. I’m sure he had good reasons, but he passed on Patrick Mahomes and Deshaun Watson in the 2017 draft, when he badly needed a quarterback to jump-start his first head coaching job.
He instead was planning to sign Kirk Cousins the following offseason before Garoppolo fell in his lap at the trade deadline. Now he’s dealing away the largest trade package in team history to replace the guy he gave a $137.5 million contract.
We’ve seen it in the NFL many times before. Coaches are not always the best talent evaluators. Some are just bad at it, even when offensive geniuses picking quarterbacks (see: Josh McDaniels-Tim Tebow). Shanahan appears to have been overthinking it with quarterbacks throughout his tenure. Trading three first-round picks for Jones seems like a great way to reinforce that idea.
Shanahan threw out Drew Brees’ name earlier this week when answering my question about the growing trend of mobile quarterbacks versus the seemingly dying breed of more traditional pocket passers. Which seems to be a sign pointing to Jones, especially since Shanahan’s close friend, Chris Simms, has said he believes Jones has Brees-like aspects to his game. Notably, Simms meant the mental processing and accuracy to be successful.
“I think the whole thing of the success of people like Patrick Mahomes and Josh Allen, Deshaun, Lamar (Jackson), those guys are unbelievable. They can play the position and are obviously very, very talented and running around and doing stuff. But those are those guys,” Shanahan said.
Those guys are unbelievable. They were also available to Shanahan had he navigated things differently in the 2017 draft and with his decision to sign Garoppolo after just five games (Garoppolo should have been given the franchise tag in 2018, not a long-term deal, in hindsight).
“I don’t care when Drew Brees comes out, whether it’s 30 years from now, 30 years ago, or today. Drew’s going to be pretty good. So was Philip Rivers,” Shanahan said.
Jones’ mediocre appeal
Here’s the thing about Mac Jones. Through my time studying his video, his numbers and what other people much smarter than I think, I’ve concluded he’s the type of quarterback to settle for, not one to risk your legacy on. To equate him to Brees, one of the best quarterbacks ever, is an irresponsible projection based on limited information. (Not to mention Brees’ one Super Bowl win in 20 seasons, which wouldn’t be acceptable according to Shanahan and Lynch’s expectations.)
Jones had the perfect situation in Alabama. He had the best group of skill players, the best offensive line and a running back who might get drafted in the first round. He was also in an incredible system that put it all together and made life easy during his one full season as the starter. NFL Network analyst Bucky Brooks made this point with a reference I think many can understand. Jones was Tony Stark and his surroundings were Iron Man’s suit.
Throughout the last month I haven’t heard from a single person who believes the only way to get Jones was trading up as high as third overall. The 49ers might have been able to nab Jones at pick No. 6, which is where the Eagles were. Then they traded the pick to the Dolphins to move back to San Francisco’s initial spot.
Miami took the 49ers’ former No. 12 pick and sent it to Philly for pick No. 6 and a fourth-round pick (No. 156). The cost: a 2021 fourth-round pick (No. 123) and a 2022 first-round pick.
That’s a first-round pick less than what Shanahan gave up to move to No. 3.
Trading two firsts to jump six spots for Jones would have been fine and justifiable. Trading three firsts to No. 3, while passing on North Dakota State’s Trey Lance and Ohio State’s Justin Fields might be a fireable offense, unless Jones looks like a young Brees as soon as September and the 49ers are legitimate playoff contenders in the best division in football (good luck, rook!).
An issue with the process might underscore a potential rift in the organization. Some reports say the personnel department, led by Lynch and assistant GM Adam Peters, prefer Lance; Shanahan prefers Jones. Shanahan and Lynch at the time of the trade said they were comfortable with three quarterbacks third overall and wanted to jump up to scout all five unencumbered, without having to worry about getting seen nosing around on quarterbacks (which they’ve been doing since February).
If they pick Jones, they will have traded an extra first-round pick just to get better feels for Fields and Lance, who both worked with Shanahan confidant John Beck, a former Shanahan quarterback who trains the position in Southern California — and has worked with Garoppolo and Nick Mullens in the past.
To go through that entire process just to end up with the guy Shanahan decided he wanted in February is malpractice — and a sign he wanted to placate a personnel department in a faulty process. They could have scouted Jones thoroughly enough without going through the motions on the Fields-Lance pro day circuit and not given up their war chest of first-round picks. It’s an unnecessary compromise.
49ers should take Lance
Which is where my job gets fuzzy covering the team. It would be easy to see Shanahan’s mistakes, and the potential disaster on the horizon, and not issue a warning to the audience. It might be a overly romantic view of journalism to take the “hold the powerful accountable” stance regarding football coaches and a silly draft paradigm. But it would be a disservice to readers to not provide context when looking at Shanahan’s decision-making process.
My job is to convey what Shanahan is thinking while only getting clues about what’s going through his mind. There’s also an element of identifying prospects, finding the prospect he should take and the guy he will take.
I think Shanahan should take Lance, the strong-armed, uber-athletic, enigmatic prospect who played just one game in 2020 because of the pandemic. I’d also take Fields over Jones for similar reasons. Both are immensely more talented with more athleticism, size and arm strength, and could make building a roster around them easier, particularly because the team doesn’t have another first-round draft pick until 2024.
Like Brees, Jones has the skills of a quarterback that might not be able to power the ball downfield when it matters most in January, when it’s cold in Green Bay and 90% of the country. Nor will he provide a play-making element with his legs that so many quarterbacks have tortured Shanahan’s defense with, including Mahomes in the Super Bowl two seasons ago. The absolute ceiling to Jones, in my opinion, is Matt Ryan, who helped Shanahan blow a 28-3 lead in the Super Bowl LI. Ryan is not a quarterback worth three first-round picks.
If the 49ers deal with injuries like they did in 2018 and 2020, Jones, in my estimation, will not be able to carry a downtrodden roster like Russell Wilson does seemingly every year with the Seahawks. Jones will not be able to overcome offensive line injuries, or consistently escape pressure and scramble for third-down conversions late in playoff games. Jones would have to be an incredible player to give San Francisco an advantage at quarterback over others like Aaron Rodgers, Wilson, Mahomes, Allen or any of the other dynamic quarterbacks running through the league.
Jones needs everything around him to be perfect, as it was in Alabama, which has been the exact opposite case for San Francisco in two of the last three seasons. I’ll repeat: The 49ers have had optimal circumstances for a quarterback in exactly one in four seasons. Why should we expect Jones to enjoy such circumstances in 2021?
You invest three first-round picks in a quarterback to make up for deficiencies elsewhere. And yes, Jones is a very accurate passer, particularly on deep throws, which would add an element the 49ers are lacking. But his accuracy and processing might also be learned traits which could be taught to Fields or Lance just as easily. He might not be a whole lot better than Garoppolo.
I thought Lance would be the pick after diving into the prospects the weekend after the trade and have written as much in the weeks since. I had reason to believe the Jones rumors were hearsay and lazy dot-connecting to Kirk Cousins, Ryan and other immobile quarterbacks Shanahan has worked with in the past. I also had reason to believe the 49ers like Lance, and still believe that, which has been reported elsewhere.
But my opinion changed last weekend when it became clear to me the Jones buzz was real, while Shanahan and Lynch took to their Zoom call with reporters Monday and looked like two guys about to make an immensely unpopular decision.
It’s my belief that if Shanahan takes anyone other than Jones, he’ll have changed his mind during the week leading up to the draft. It would take something drastic for him to change his convictions knowing Shanahan like I think I do.
But perhaps he will and decide to go with Lance or Fields. Or perhaps the New York Jets will pass on BYU’s Zach Wilson and we’ll all feel silly for assuming he’d go second overall, which has been the thought since January.
I’m just happy I don’t have to try reading Shanahan’s mind for much longer.
Top quarterback picks
Here’s a look at the quarterbacks drafted in the top half of the first-round since 2010. Depending on how you measure success, it’s safe to say eight to 10 of these picks hit, while 14 to 16 are busts. The last two quarterbacks taken third overall were Blake Bortles and Sam Darnold.
Sam Bradford (1 overall, 2010)
Cam Newton (1, 2011)
Jake Locker (8, 2011)
Andrew Luck (1, 2012)
Robert Griffin (2, 2012)
Ryan Tannehill (8, 2012)
E.J. Manuel (16, 2013)
Blake Bortles (3, 2014)
Jameis Winston (1, 2015)
Marcus Mariota (2, 2015)
Jared Goff (1, 2016)
Carson Wentz (2, 2016)
Mitch Trubisky (2, 2017)
Patrick Mahomes (10, 2017)
Deshaun Watson (12, 2017)
Baker Mayfield (1, 2018)
Sam Darnold (3, 2018)
Josh Allen (7, 2018)
Josh Rosen (10, 2018)
Kyler Murray (1, 2019)
Daniel Jones (6, 2019)
Dwayne Haskins (15, 2019)
Joe Burrow (1, 2020)
Tua Tagovailoa (5, 2020)
Justin Herbert (6, 2020)
This story was originally published April 29, 2021 at 6:32 AM.
