Quarterly report: Grading the Kings’ first 21 games and projecting team awards
The Kings are a quarter of the way through the 2019-20 season. Progress reports are due. Some members of the class are excelling, but others have struggled and some have missed considerable time in the nurse’s office.
The Kings (8-13) swung wildly between overachievement and failure in their first 21 games under coach Luke Walton. They lost forward Marvin Bagley III to a broken thumb in the season opener, dropped their first five games and then lost point guard De’Aaron Fox to a severely sprained ankle, but they still won seven of 10 during one stretch before losing five of their last six.
In our first quarterly report of the season, we look at what’s right and what’s wrong with the Kings. Who’s leading the race for team MVP and defensive player of the year? Which players have been the best and worst surprises? Let’s look at the report card for the first quarter.
First-quarter grade: Incomplete
Assigning a letter grade to this team is difficult right now given the injuries.
Fox and Bagley have missed extended time with major injuries. Bagley has been out for 20 games. Fox has missed 12. Bogdan Bogdanovic was slowed and then briefly sidelined with minor hamstring and knee issues. Buddy Hield hasn’t missed any time, but his recurring shooting struggles might have something to do with a sprained finger on his right hand. Cory Joseph and Trevor Ariza have been banged up as well.
The Kings were showing real progress under Walton at both ends of the floor — dramatically improving their offensive and defensive ratings — but they did that without Bagley and Fox, and now they seem to be regressing as the injuries mount. Despite all that, they are only two games out of seventh in the Western Conference. They have quality wins over the Utah Jazz, Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets and bad losses to the Charlotte Hornets, Chicago Bulls and San Antonio Spurs.
What does this team look like when Bagley comes back in the coming days? When Fox finally returns? When Walton has the full breadth of the team’s talent and depth to work with? At this point, we simply don’t know.
MVP: Richaun Holmes
Holmes is averaging 12.4 points, 8.6 rebounds and 1.4 blocked shots per game. He is shooting 66.9 percent from the field and 76 percent at the free-throw line while providing energy, effort and rim protection at the defensive end, everything the team hoped Willie Cauley-Stein would provide in years past.
“He’s impressive,” Walton said. “… He’s doing everything we want our big man to do for us.”
Holmes leads the team with an offensive rating of 136. He is first among rotation players with a defensive rating of 107. He also leads the team in offensive win shares, defensive win shares, win shares, box plus/minus and VORP (value over replacement player).
Holmes is second in the NBA in field-goal percentage; third in true shooting percentage, 2-point field-goal percentage, effective field-goal percentage and offensive rating; 10th in offensive win shares; 14th in win shares; and 15th in blocked shots.
Defensive Player of the Year: Richaun Holmes
Holmes has anchored a defense that has been much improved this season. He rebounds. He blocks shots. He provides a presence that makes opponents think twice about attacking the rim.
Sacramento is allowing 108.6 points per game after giving up 115.1 in 2018-19. Opponents killed the Kings with offensive rebounds and second-chance points last season, but not anymore.
The Kings were 26th in the NBA in defensive rebounding percentage (.713), opponent’s points in the paint (51.2) and opponent’s second-chance points (14.4) last season. This season, they are seventh in opponent’s second-chance points (12.4), 11th in opponent’s points in the paint (46.8) and 12th in defensive rebounding percentage (.731).
Nice surprise: Richaun Holmes
The Kings signed Holmes to a two-year, $9.77 million contract over the summer. He is the 10th-highest paid player on the team.
Holmes was brought in to compete with Harry Giles III for backup minutes behind center Dewayne Dedmon, who came to Sacramento on a three-year, $40 million deal. Instead, Holmes has emerged as the starter, relegating Dedmon to the bench.
Holmes started only 24 games over his first four NBA seasons, recording a total of 11 double-doubles in 226 games with the Philadelphia 76ers and Phoenix Suns. He has started 17 of his first 21 games with the Kings, posting eight double-doubles.
Holmes shined at times in limited minutes as a backup in previous seasons, but he had never averaged more than 9.8 points, 5.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. He is dwarfing those numbers now.
Biggest disappointment: Dewayne Dedmon
It still isn’t clear what has happened to Dedmon, but he has been the team’s biggest disappointment this season.
The Kings coveted Dedmon as a stretch big who could space the floor with his outside shooting to create space for Fox and Bagley to operate inside. He shot 35.5 percent from 3-point range in 2017-18 and 38.2 percent in 2018-19 with the Atlanta Hawks, emerging as one of the best 3-point shooting big men in the league.
The Kings thought Dedmon would be the perfect player to pair with Bagley in the frontcourt, but Bagley was hurt in the first game and Dedmon has struggled badly. After averaging 10.8 points, 7.5 rebounds, 1.4 assists and 1.1 blocks last season in Atlanta, Dedmon is averaging 5.3 points, 4.2 rebounds and 0.6 blocks in Sacramento. He is shooting just 42 percent from the field and an unsightly 23.4 percent from beyond the arc.
Opponents aren’t even coming out to contest wide-open looks from Dedmon, packing the paint instead and eliminating the offensive spacing he was brought in to create.
This story was originally published December 8, 2019 at 5:45 AM.
