An Emerson College poll released Saturday shows Xavier Becerra leading the race at 28%, followed by Tom Steyer at 22%. Republican Steve Hilton is not far behind at 21%.
Earlier this month, Steyer and Hilton were both at 17%, according to the report. Steyer’s boost comes as the poll shows fleeting support for Democrat candidates Katie Porter and Matt Mahan, who saw dips of five and three percentage points, respectively.
Saturday’s poll showed both Porter and Mahan at 5%.
Tuesday’s election will narrow the field down to two candidates, as California’s primary system for the governor’s race advances the top two vote-getters, regardless of political party. Those two will then go head-to-head in November.
Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, says Hilton could see a boost come Election Day on Tuesday if support for fellow Republican Chad Bianco dips.
“If Chad Bianco’s support erodes by Election Day, Hilton is positioned to benefit,” Kimball wrote in a statement. “Steyer’s path to the runoff depends on mobilizing younger voters while limiting further gains by Becerra, whose growing coalition could siphon support from Steyer.”
Bianco, who trails Hilton at 12%, saw a one-point increase since May 10, according to the Emerson College poll, which states 12% of his supporters could change their minds.
The number of undecided voters has seen a drop, according to the poll, falling from 12% to 5% since May 10.
Who are Becerra, Steyer and Hilton?
The poll shows Becerra, Steyer and Hilton leading the pack, among 62 total candidates on the ballot.
Becerra is a Sacramento native who won a seat in the California Assembly in 1990 and went on to win a seat in the U.S. House of Representatives two years later. He served as the state’s attorney general from 2017 to 2021. While in that role, he sued Trump’s first administration more than 120 times. He then accepted a post as then-President Joe Biden’s Health and Human Services secretary.
Steyer is a billionaire who started San Francisco-based hedge fund Farallon Capital in the 1986. He retired in 2012. Steyer is running on what he calls “shared prosperity,” a platform that includes single-payer healthcare, trimming electricity bills by 25% and building 1 million new homes in the state.
Gubernatorial candidate Tom Steyer speaks to supporters during a bus tour stop at the SEIU 2015 office in West Sacramento on Friday. Hector Amezcua hamezcua@sacbee.com
Hilton used to host a Fox News show called “The Next Revolution,” which he pursued through 2023, according to previous Sacramento Bee reporting. He is a London native who was the director of strategy for former Prime Minister David Cameron from 2010 to 2012. He wants to reduce taxes and regulations, particularly regarding permits. He also eyes a California version of the Department of Government Efficiency, commonly known as DOGE.
Republican governor candidate Steve Hilton listens during a forum by the California Hispanic Chambers of Commerce in Sacramento on April 14. HECTOR AMEZCUA hamezcua@sacbee.com
Statewide races
Governor
Eight major candidates are competing in a crowded, high-stakes race to replace Gov. Gavin Newsom. A late-stage debate and recent shakeups could reshape the volatile field before voting begins.
Five viable candidates with low name recognition are vying in the primary for lieutenant governor, a largely ceremonial role. Fundraising strength and high-profile endorsements could determine which two hopefuls advance.
The Secretary of State race features an incumbent Democrat with a clear advantage in a heavily blue state. The office oversees elections and business filings, and has served as a springboard to higher office.
Three candidates are competing to become California’s attorney general, the state’s top law enforcement official. The position carries broad legal authority and frequently places its holder at the center of major political and policy fights.
Six candidates are running for state treasurer, who manages California’s finances and investment portfolios. The next officeholder will help navigate budget deficits and fund major infrastructure and public programs.
Incumbent controller Malia Cohen faces two challengers in a low-profile race. The office oversees state spending, audits agencies and will confront payroll system issues.
Eight candidates are competing for state superintendent of public instruction, a nonpartisan role shaping education policy. The next schools chief could see the job’s authority reduced under a proposed overhaul by Newsom.
More than 10 candidates are competing for insurance commissioner, a high-pressure role overseeing a troubled market. Frustration over rising costs and coverage gaps has made it one of the most crowded statewide races.
Voters will choose a new Board of Equalization member for a sprawling district covering much of inland California. The board retains a limited tax oversight role, and one candidate holds a clear fundraising edge.
Three leading candidates are competing in a Northern California congressional race complicated by a special election and redistricting. Voters could cast ballots multiple times before November to fill both a short-term and full-term seat.
Seven candidates are competing in a redrawn congressional district that has shifted toward Democrats after redistricting. An incumbent member of Congress leads in fundraising, but the new boundaries have shaped the race’s political balance.
Incumbent Rep. Mike Thompson faces a well-funded Democratic challenger, Eric Jones, in a newly redrawn district that stretches from Napa through Yolo County and into the Sacramento Valley.
Three Democrats are competing to challenge longtime Republican Rep. Tom McClintock in a right-leaning district. The incumbent holds a clear fundraising advantage in a race shaped by redistricting.
Rep. Kevin Kiley, who recently changed his party registration from Republican to Independent, will compete against a crowded field of Democrats in the newly drawn 6th District.
Longtime Rep. Doris Matsui faces a significant primary challenge from Sacramento Councilmember Mai Vang in a safely Democratic district. The race highlights a broader generational divide within the party.
Incumbent Rep. Josh Harder is heavily favored in a newly redrawn Central Valley district, facing Republican challengers for a seat that's expected to remain safely Democratic after recent boundary changes.
Incumbent Rep. Adam Gray faces two Republican challengers in a closely watched Central Valley swing district. Despite a Democratic tilt after redistricting, the race remains competitive and nationally targeted.
Rep. David Valadao faces two Democratic challengers in a closely watched Central Valley battleground, where shifting voter registration has kept the race competitive despite the Republican incumbent's fundraising advantage.
Incumbent Marie Alvarado-Gil, now a Republican, faces a competitive challenge from within her party and a Democratic contender in a GOP-leaning Sierra district. Her party switch, and fundraising gaps, have shaped the race.
Republican Sen. Roger Niello faces two lesser-known Democratic challengers in a closely divided suburban district. The incumbent holds significant fundraising and name recognition advantages heading into the primary.
Incumbent Sen. Angelique Ashby faces minimal opposition in a Sacramento-area district, entering the race with strong fundraising and leadership standing in the Legislature.
Three candidates are competing in a heavily Republican north state Assembly district, where the GOP incumbent holds a fundraising edge. The top two vote-getters in June will advance to the general election.
Incumbent Republican Joe Patterson faces a rematch against Democrat Neva Parker in a district that covers parts of Placer and El Dorado counties. Patterson holds a significant fundraising advantage after winning the seat in 2024.
Democratic incumbent Maggy Krell faces minimal opposition in this Sacramento-area district. With a large fundraising edge, she is expected to maintain an advantage in what is already a two-candidate race.
Assembly Majority Leader Cecilia Aguiar-Curry is running unopposed in a district that spans Napa, Yolo and surrounding counties. She's expected to secure another term, as she pushes policy on agriculture, social programs and antitrust issues.
With one candidate for each major party, the primary likely serves as a preview of a competitive general election in this swing district. Republican incumbent Josh Hoover holds a significant fundraising advantage in the fight for this Sacramento-area seat.
Republican David Tangipa is running unopposed for reelection in a district that encompasses parts of the Central Valley and the Sierra. The first-term lawmaker has emerged as a vocal critic of Democratic leadership.
Incumbent Republican Heath Flora faces multiple challengers in a Central Valley district, including a rival with strong endorsements from within the GOP.
Incumbent Democrat Stephanie Nguyen is favored in a rematch against Republican Vinaya Singh in a safely blue Sacramento-area district. Both candidates will advance from the primary to November.
Longtime Councilmember Rick Jennings faces two lesser-known challengers in a south Sacramento district representing the Pocket, Greenhaven and Land Park.
Four candidates are competing to replace longtime Supervisor Phil Serna, opening a rare contest for a seat that shapes decisions on homelessness, public safety and a multibillion-dollar county budget.
Incumbent Patrick Kennedy is seeking a fourth term representing Land Park and other parts of south Sacramento, facing two lesser-known challengers in a race centered on homelessness and housing.
Mayor Kevin McCarty’s endorsement has reshaped an otherwise low-key race in North Natomas City, where incumbent Lisa Kaplan faces a challenge from former FBI specialist Jenn Chawla, alongside a lesser-known third candidate.
Covering neighborhoods like Oak Park and Parkway, Sacramento’s 5th District race features incumbent Caity Maple facing two challengers as she seeks a second term.
Three candidates are running for an open seat in this northern Sacramento school district just weeks after a 12-day teachers strike put its labor tensions and budget challenges in sharp focus.
Bonnie Gore is running unopposed for another term representing west Roseville and Dry Creek, with housing growth, open space and healthcare costs top of mind.
Incumbent Shanti Landon faces her former ally, Lincoln Councilmember Holly Andreatta, in a contentious 2nd District race shaped by differences over a proposed homeless respite center.
A costly budget shortfall is looming in the 3rd District race to represent Woodland and parts of West Sacramento, where three candidates are vying to replace Mary Sandy Dixie.
Davis’ long-running growth tensions come to a head with a ballot measure on the Village Farms project, which asks voters to weigh new housing against traffic, environmental concerns and the city’s slow-growth identity.
Four candidates are competing to replace Brooke Laine in the 4th District, which covers Shingle Springs, Coloma and Georgetown, while the 5th District seat is uncontested.
Incumbent Sean Coppola faces challenger Corey Leikauf for El Dorado treasurer-tax collector, with Leikauf holding a fundraising edge in the contest to oversee county finances and tax collection.
For the first time in more than a decade, voters in Linda will choose a new 1st District supervisor as two candidates compete to replace the outgoing incumbent.
Rocklin Mayor Dave Bass is challenging recently appointed Judge Leon Dixson in an unusually contested judicial race. Bass has support from local law enforcement leaders, while Dixson is backed by the county’s sitting judges.
Two non-incumbents are competing for an open judicial seat after Judge Janene Beronio’s retirement. The race features Yolo County Deputy District Attorney Diane Ortiz and Sacramento County court commissioner Ryan Davis.
Four ballot measures in portions of El Dorado County — B, C, E and G — ask voters to renew parcel taxes that fund libraries, fire services and recreation. The proposals target specific communities and services rather than countywide programs.
Corey Schmidt is a watchdog reporter for the Sacramento Bee, focusing on Folsom, El Dorado Hills and Sacramento County’s eastern suburbs. Previously, he was the government watchdog reporter for the St. Cloud Times in Minnesota. Schmidt received his bachelor’s degree from DePaul University in Chicago and his master’s degree from Yale University.
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